The central bank said in its latest study in Issue Note that about 30.9 percent of the 9.1 trillion won distributed through credit cards translated into additional sales at retail stores.
Depending on the methodology used, the sales boost was estimated at between 1.4 trillion won and 3.6 trillion won, with the ratio of additional sales to fiscal input ranging from 16.1 percent to 39.8 percent.
The consumer coupon program was included in the 2025 supplementary budget to stimulate household consumption and support small merchants. A total of 13.522 trillion won was distributed nationwide through credit cards, local gift certificates and prepaid cards, with credit cards accounting for about 70 percent of the total.
The BOK analyzed credit card sales data from six card companies to estimate the impact on eligible merchants and conducted self-reported surveys of coupon recipients to assess the effect on household consumption. Local gift certificates and prepaid cards were excluded from the credit card sales analysis.
Average monthly sales at eligible stores rose 2.91 percent more than at non-eligible stores, the BOK said. Under alternative estimation methods, the effect ranged from 1.46 percent to 3.76 percent.
The impact was concentrated in the early stages of both the first and second rounds of payments and lasted only briefly. The BOK said the findings showed the coupon program was suited as a short-term policy response when stabilizing livelihood conditions was urgent.
By region, the impact was stronger outside the Seoul metropolitan area in both the first round, which included differentiated regional support, and the second round, which did not. The overall effect was largest in non-capital regions, suggesting that coupons may generate a stronger consumption response in areas with weaker spending capacity.
By sector, the effect was largest at general merchandise stores, followed by restaurants and leisure goods stores. The result indicates that the sales boost was concentrated in everyday consumption sectors, including food, clothing and optical goods.
The effect on household consumption was more limited. The BOK estimated the marginal propensity to consume out of the coupons at 0.20, meaning households increased new spending by about 20,000 won for every 100,000 won received.
Spending that would have taken place even without the coupons was excluded from the estimated consumption effect. The marginal propensity to consume tended to be higher among lower-income households.
The BOK said the consumption effect could be increased if support targets were set more precisely and differentiated assistance was used together. By item, new consumption was more pronounced in durable goods, semi-durable goods and leisure, while the effect was smaller for necessities such as non-durable goods, education and medical services.
The marginal propensity to consume was 0.21 in the first round, slightly higher than 0.18 in the second round. The BOK said the lower second-round effect may have reflected weaker policy visibility or a reduced sense of benefit, as the per-person payment fell to 100,000 won from 150,000 won to 550,000 won in the first round.
Overall, the BOK estimated that the consumer coupon program lifted South Korea's gross domestic product growth in 2025 by about 0.12 percentage point. Depending on the methodology, the growth effect ranged from 0.07 percentage point to 0.15 percentage point.
The central bank said the policy channel from higher disposable income to actual spending and merchant sales had functioned effectively. It also said income- and region-based differentiated support appeared to have helped boost spending among vulnerable groups and sales outside the capital region.
Still, the BOK said similar programs in the future should be designed more precisely in terms of timing, differentiated support and eligible merchants to improve their economic effectiveness. It added that policy efforts are also needed to structurally improve the competitiveness and productivity of self-employed workers and small businesses.
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