The Wall Street Journal reported on June 10, citing an analysis from the UK-based Verification Research, Training and Information Centre (VERTIC), that if the new facility becomes fully operational, North Korea's uranium enrichment capacity could increase by 75%.
VERTIC estimates that the new facility at Yongbyon is equipped with over 9,000 centrifuges and could produce approximately 160 kg of highly enriched uranium annually. North Korea's current production capacity is estimated at about 215 kg per year.
Kim Jong Un has recently showcased his commitment to expanding the nuclear weapons program by personally inspecting the facility.
Grant Christopher, the author of the VERTIC analysis, stated, "North Korea likely already possesses all the materials needed for a medium-sized nuclear arsenal. It appears they are now looking to increase those numbers further. There is no evidence suggesting that North Korea will stop anytime soon."
Christopher also estimated that North Korea's total stockpile of highly enriched uranium is around 2,100 kg, which is roughly one-tenth of the military-grade highly enriched uranium stockpiles held by the UK and France.
According to new estimates from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), North Korea currently possesses about 60 nuclear warheads and has enough fissile material to produce at least 90 additional warheads, an increase from approximately 50 in 2025.
Once completed, the new facility is expected to be North Korea's largest publicly known uranium enrichment site. VERTIC derived its estimates from historical data on similar centrifuges, satellite imagery analyzing the size of the buildings, and other modeling techniques.
Senior analyst Shin Jae-woo from the Open Nuclear Network noted that construction at the site began in late 2024 and appears to have been completed in about 18 months.
Shin emphasized, "It is significant that this facility is located in the heart of Yongbyon, rather than in a remote area hidden from the outside world. It seems to have been placed there to be discovered."
Hailey Wingo, a co-author of the VERTIC analysis, suggested that North Korea may be expanding its uranium enrichment capabilities with an eye toward supplying nuclear materials for its developing nuclear submarines.
The Wall Street Journal noted that Kim's expansion of nuclear weapons suggests a low likelihood of North Korea pursuing an agreement to scale back its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief from the U.S.
North Korea proposed dismantling its Yongbyon nuclear facility in exchange for sanctions relief during the 2019 Hanoi summit with the U.S., but negotiations collapsed when then-President Donald Trump demanded a more comprehensive agreement that included North Korea's undeclared nuclear facilities.
* This article has been translated by AI.
Copyright ⓒ Aju Press All rights reserved.