According to the Times, the company has set its IPO price at $135 per share, which translates to a valuation of $1.77 trillion. SpaceX is expected to begin trading on the stock market on Friday, with this IPO seen as a test of market confidence in Musk's strategies related to space and artificial intelligence (AI).
The primary concern revolves around the company's financial health. The Times reported that SpaceX incurred a loss of $4.3 billion in the first quarter of this year, while revenue for the same period was $4.7 billion. Although revenue is increasing, there are doubts about whether the valuation exceeding $1 trillion can be justified given the substantial costs associated with AI development.
Long-term growth projections are also fueling controversy. The company claims that the market it anticipates tapping into could reach $28.5 trillion, which includes plans for AI data centers in space and factories on the Moon. The Times noted that “to realize such blueprints, unproven technologies and business viability must be demonstrated.”
Prominent investors have publicly raised questions as well. Jim Chanos, who predicted the Enron collapse, expressed concerns about SpaceX's financial structure. Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, pointed out that even if the stock price rises post-IPO, it may rely more on investor enthusiasm and buying pressure than on actual performance.
Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki and an existing shareholder, remarked, “The company’s valuation has skyrocketed from $400 billion 13 months ago to $1.77 trillion now,” adding that “investors are paying a very high price.”
Investment banks are presenting even more aggressive figures. The Times, citing the Financial Times, reported that Goldman Sachs informed investors that SpaceX's revenue, which was $18.7 billion last year, could increase to $474 billion by 2030. According to The Wall Street Journal, Morgan Stanley shared projections estimating revenue could reach $3.4 trillion by 2040.
Conversely, investment analysis firm Morningstar has deemed the IPO price as overvalued, estimating the fair value at around $780 billion. However, they noted that in the most optimistic scenario, where the technology for reusing the Starship rocket like an aircraft and the economics of space data centers are proven, the valuation could rise to $1.97 trillion.
Musk's rapid shifts in business direction ahead of the IPO are also seen as a source of uncertainty. The Times reported that Musk began mentioning plans for space data centers last year and has emphasized related strategies after merging his AI company, xAI, with SpaceX in February. Since then, the company has been increasing its focus on AI, pursuing acquisitions like the coding startup 'Cursor' and contracts to lease AI computing servers to Anthropic and Google.
Skeptics believe that the long-term plans are undergoing significant changes just before the IPO. Chanos stated, “xAI is transitioning from a company developing AI models to an emerging cloud service provider renting servers to other firms,” adding that this sector is akin to an infrastructure business that tends to receive relatively low valuations in public markets.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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