"I voted for the district chief from the Democratic Party, but for the mayor, I chose Oh Se-hoon."
This statement from a man in his 40s near Sillim Station in Gwanak District encapsulates the essence of the recent Seoul mayoral election.
He expressed skepticism about politics, saying, "Honestly, I don’t trust politics much, but I feel that Seoul has become a bit more comfortable over time." This indicates that he judged the mayoral race by different criteria than his political leanings.
A woman in her 50s who runs a small business in Nowon District echoed similar sentiments.
"Even if I don’t like the party, I need to choose someone who can do the job well. I had hopes that the atmosphere in the neighborhood could change," she said.
The key factor behind Oh Se-hoon’s victory in the Seoul mayoral election is surprisingly straightforward: 'cross-voting.' Voters who chose Democratic Party candidates for district chief also cast their ballots for Oh Se-hoon for mayor in various areas of the city.
However, political analysts suggest a clearer interpretation. They argue that cross-voting was merely a result, and the underlying cause was the individual of 'Oh Se-hoon.' Thus, this election was more a victory for Oh's personal brand than for the People Power Party.
Seoul voters evaluated the mayoral race on separate criteria, focusing on who could effectively manage the city and who had made tangible improvements in their lives, rather than ideological or party loyalty.
This election is particularly noteworthy as it diverged from national trends.
In cities like Busan and Ulsan, as well as in Gangwon and Chungnam, candidates from the People Power Party faced significant defeats. Analysts attribute this to widespread fatigue with the opposition and calls for accountability against the ruling party. However, Seoul was different; it chose Oh Se-hoon over party affiliation.
A representative from Oh Se-hoon’s campaign stated, "It is crucial to recognize that this election was about Oh Se-hoon as an individual, not just as a candidate from the People Power Party. This is a classic example of separating party support from mayoral evaluation."
The numbers from the election further illustrate this point. Cross-voting in northern districts like Jungnang, Seongbuk, Gangbuk, Nowon, and Eunpyeong, as well as southwestern areas like Gangseo, Guro, Geumcheon, and Gwanak, significantly altered the election's dynamics. In these regions, Oh received 106,125 more votes than the People Power Party's district chief candidates. Given that the final vote difference between Oh and his opponent Jeong Won-oh was about 60,000, it is fair to say that cross-voting in northern and southwestern Seoul determined the outcome.
In Gwanak District, Oh garnered 20,731 more votes than the People Power Party's district chief candidate, with additional votes from Nowon (15,840), Gangseo (15,259), Seongbuk (14,811), and Jungnang (14,256).
This phenomenon cannot be simply explained by a shift among moderate voters. It suggests that some Democratic Party-leaning voters made an exception for Oh Se-hoon in the mayoral election. In other words, the sentiment in Seoul was that while the party was Democratic, the mayor should be Oh Se-hoon.
Why was this possible?
Political insiders cite 'the individual of Oh Se-hoon' as the primary reason. During this election, Oh did not confine himself to the People Power Party's label. Instead, he adopted a strategy that distanced himself from central politics.
Throughout the campaign, Oh publicly clashed with party leadership multiple times. He effectively led the message of 'disconnection from Yoon Suk-yeol' and did not shy away from criticizing the leadership. His intention was clear: to frame the mayoral election as an evaluation of city administration rather than an extension of central politics.
Political analysts note, "Oh Se-hoon was a candidate from the People Power Party, but his supporters did not campaign in the typical People Power Party manner."
Indeed, while the narrative of 'holding the People Power Party accountable' was strong nationwide, Oh was relatively free from that framework. His so-called 'decoupling strategy'—separating himself from government and ruling party risks—was seen as successful in expanding his appeal to moderate voters.
Another representative from Oh Se-hoon’s campaign remarked, "While the national narrative was about party accountability, Seoul was an exception. Seoul citizens evaluated Oh Se-hoon from the perspective of selecting a city manager rather than a party candidate."
However, his policy effectiveness should not be overlooked. The key point is that the trust in Oh as an administrator outweighed the policies themselves.
Lifestyle policies such as the Climate Companion Card, Seoul Run, Wrist Doctor 9988, Youth Employment Academy, Safe Help Me, and Seoul Outdoor Library clearly influenced voter sentiment. Yet, it is argued that voters chose not just based on the list of policies but on 'Administrator Oh Se-hoon,' who consistently implemented those policies.
Seoul City spokesperson Lee Min-kyung stated, "Seoul citizens are more sensitive to policies they use daily than to grand political slogans. Policies like the Climate Companion Card, which citizens experience repeatedly, significantly contributed to the personal trust in Mayor Oh."
Another notable feature of this election was its generational appeal. There was significant expansion among demographics traditionally considered weak for conservative parties, particularly women in their 20s and 30s and individuals in their 40s and 50s. Notably, women in their 20s and 30s and individuals in their 40s and 50s, who have historically leaned toward the Democratic Party, voted based on perceived effectiveness rather than party affinity in this election. This change cannot be easily explained by mere consolidation of conservative support.
Some political observers interpret this Seoul mayoral election as a symbolic moment that illustrates the limits of fandom politics. They argue that strong support bases alone could not capture the sentiments of Seoul voters.
While the Democratic Party's politics, centered around President Lee Jae-myung, relies on mobilizing strong support and political loyalty, Mayor Oh Se-hoon chose to absorb moderate voters by focusing on lifestyle policies and urban administrative achievements.
A ruling party official commented, "This Seoul election can be seen as a victory for effectiveness over fandom. The question of who can change citizens' lives has become more important than who can rally support more strongly."
The changes in northern and southwestern Seoul are particularly symbolic.
The 'Era of Prosperity in the North' and 'Major Overhaul of the Southwest,' which Oh promoted as key brands for his administration, carried more significance than mere development promises. They instilled hope in residents who have long felt relative deprivation that 'this time, things can really change.'
In the northern areas, plans for a 16 trillion won investment, transportation network reorganization, and development in Chang-dong and Dobong were proposed, while the southwestern region also saw initiatives for G-Valley innovation, the creation of an industrial belt linked to Magok, and expansion of the railway network.
Importantly, residents perceived these not as mere electoral promises but as feasible projects. Unlike past development pledges that remained at the declarative level, there is a perception that Oh is someone who can actually implement these plans.
The recent Seoul mayoral election can be distilled into one question: Why did Seoul citizens choose Oh Se-hoon again? The answer may be simple: it was about the person, not the party.
The sentiment in Seoul indicates a shift away from being swayed solely by grand ideologies and partisan slogans. Voters cast their ballots based on who has genuinely improved their lives and who has the capability to fulfill promises.
Seoul has always been a trendsetter. Movements among moderate voters, generational divides, and shifts in the political landscape often begin in Seoul. In this regard, this election leaves implications that extend beyond a mere local election. It suggests that practical politics, trust in individuals over party loyalty, and administrative effectiveness over political slogans may become the new standards in South Korean politics.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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