Following an agreement on a ceasefire between the United States and Iran on June 14, the previously blocked Hormuz Strait is set to reopen. The shipping industry has expressed relief, stating that "the worst is over," but experts predict that it will take considerable time for operations to normalize.
According to the shipping industry on June 15, the agreement between the U.S. and Iran is expected to allow the resumption of operations for approximately 2,000 vessels, including 24 South Korean ships that were trapped in the Hormuz Strait.
With the resumption of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport through the strait, Middle Eastern oil-producing countries that had reduced production due to export concerns are expected to normalize their output. This is likely to ease energy supply uncertainties for East Asian countries, including South Korea, Japan, and China, which rely heavily on imports from the region.
The industry anticipates that as vessels that had been rerouted or waiting return, the recent surge in freight rates and war risk insurance costs will gradually decrease.
However, significant time will be required for the market to recover to pre-war levels, as vessel repositioning, cargo scheduling, and port congestion need to be addressed first.
Currently, there are 24 South Korean vessels trapped in the Hormuz Strait, with a total of 137 South Korean crew members aboard. This includes the HMM cargo ship 'Namoo,' which was towed to Dubai for repairs after being struck on May 4.
Due to repair issues, 'Namoo' will not be able to resume operations immediately after the reopening of the strait. The vessel was damaged by a missile attack, believed to be from Iran, and is undergoing repairs in Dubai.
HMM has stated, "'Namoo' will remain in Dubai until repairs are completed," estimating that the repairs will be finished after mid-July.
The differing positions of the U.S. and Iran regarding passage through the Hormuz Strait also present uncertainties. Iran has indicated that it will maintain its fee structure for navigation and safety services in the strait, even after the agreement with the U.S.
Internal political and military dynamics in Iran could also pose challenges. Even if the Iranian government agrees to reopen the Hormuz Strait, armed groups such as militias may independently engage in threatening actions.
In fact, in April, the Iranian government announced the lifting of the blockade of the Hormuz Strait, only for the military to reverse that decision the following day, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also supporting the closure, leading to renewed market instability. This has prompted cautious voices suggesting that the situation on the ground should be monitored closely, regardless of political agreements.
This situation is expected to impact the sustainability of HMM's Middle East routes, which are currently suspended due to the war's effects.
HMM plans to review the resumption of Middle East services once the ceasefire is finalized, but industry consensus indicates that changes in operational strategy will be necessary due to new cost structures, such as Hormuz tolls.
Goo Kyo-hoon, president of the Korea International Logistics Association, remarked, "The reopening of the strait is just the beginning. The return of vessels, normalization of port operations, and stabilization of oil prices are essential for the shipping market to recover fully." He added, "Freight rates on routes to North America and Europe are likely to remain high until October, with market normalization expected only after the fourth quarter."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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