The New York Times reported on June 16 that a preliminary agreement between the U.S. and Iran could pave the way for an end to military clashes in the Persian Gulf and disruptions in energy supplies. However, the newspaper noted that the world economy is unlikely to revert to its previous state after the war.
The NYT highlighted that the conflict has exposed the vulnerabilities of the global economy, which has relied heavily on oil and gas supply chains from the Middle East. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and attacks on energy facilities in Gulf nations have disrupted oil and gas supplies, causing prices to surge and prompting energy-importing countries to diversify their supply chains to reduce dependence on the Middle East.
Earlier this year, there were optimistic expectations for a slowdown in inflation and a recovery in global growth. However, the outlook has darkened significantly since the onset of the war. The World Bank has revised its global growth forecast downward, while rising energy prices are increasing inflationary pressures and high-interest burdens in the U.S. and Europe.
This trend is leading to a restructuring of the global energy order. In the short term, countries like South Korea and Japan may increase their reliance on fossil fuels, such as coal, but the NYT predicts a faster transition to renewable energy sources like solar and wind, as well as nuclear power, in the long term.
The NYT specifically noted that China is in the most advantageous position during this transition. China leads the world in key areas of modern power grids and renewable energy supply chains, including wind turbines, solar panels, batteries, transformers, high-voltage cables, and energy flow management software.
As countries expand investments in renewable energy infrastructure to build stable energy supply chains, China's role is expected to grow. Global energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie stated, "China appears to be the clear winner."
In contrast, there are concerns that the U.S. may fall behind in the renewable energy race. The Trump administration halted renewable energy projects and focused on reviving the fossil fuel industry, effectively withdrawing from the global energy transition competition.
The NYT warned that the U.S. risks ceding industrial and technological advantages to its main competitor, China. Additionally, the war has deepened rifts between the U.S. and its long-time ally, Europe, providing China with opportunities to expand its influence in the international arena.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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