However, analysts caution that uncertainties remain due to international oil prices and U.S. trade policies, necessitating tailored response strategies for businesses.
These insights were shared at a seminar organized by the Korea Economic Association on June 22 at FKI Tower in Yeouido, Seoul, focusing on the outlook for the second half of 2026 and industry-specific strategies.
Kim Jin-wook, Chief Economist at Citibank, emphasized the downward stabilization of the won-dollar exchange rate. He noted, "In May, the won weakened due to foreign investors rebalancing their portfolios and realizing profits. I predict that the won-dollar exchange rate will hover around 1480 for the next three months and then drop to about 1450 within six to twelve months."
Kim attributed the expected strength of the won to the semiconductor boom, increased domestic investment in stocks, and a sustained current account surplus.
Regarding trends in the dollar and yen, he stated, "The U.S. economy is expected to continue its growth, which will likely keep the dollar relatively strong. The yen is expected to peak around 160 yen per dollar before falling to the 150 yen range."
However, he also pointed out that uncertainties related to international oil prices, U.S. trade policies, and rising global agricultural prices persist.
Given that the impact of exchange rate fluctuations varies by industry, experts suggested that companies should adopt differentiated strategies. Cho Kyung-yeop, head of the CGE Economic Research Institute, explained that large corporations with high export ratios should leverage exchange rate effects to enhance global competitiveness, while companies heavily reliant on imported intermediate goods should focus on hedging and stabilizing their supply chains.
During a subsequent expert panel discussion, the need for long-term strategies, including strengthening monetary cooperation with the U.S. and enhancing industrial structure, was highlighted.
Kim Chang-beom, Vice Chairman of the Korea Economic Association, remarked, "With the recent agreement between the U.S. and Iran to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, expectations are growing that the uncertainties stemming from the Middle East that have weighed on international oil prices and financial markets will ease. We must seize this rare opportunity of stability in the Middle East and recovery in exports to fundamentally improve the Korean economy."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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