The United States and Iran concluded their first high-level follow-up meeting since signing a memorandum of understanding (MOU). However, significant differences remain regarding nuclear inspections, sanctions relief, and issues related to the Hormuz Strait. While both sides agreed to continue dialogue, they spent more time discussing the situation on the Lebanon front and maritime navigation than the core nuclear issues, indicating a challenging road ahead for reaching a final agreement.
On June 22, local time, reports from AP, Axios, Reuters, and The Hill indicated that the two sides discussed the return of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection team to Iran during their meeting in Switzerland. They also addressed the establishment of communication lines in the Hormuz Strait and measures to prevent clashes along the Lebanon front.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance stated after the meeting that Iran had agreed to accept the IAEA inspection team back, calling it a "first step toward permanently ending Iran's nuclear weapons program." However, he did not disclose which facilities the inspection team would access, leaving the status of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile and the extent of verification unclear. Vance acknowledged that further discussions are necessary.
Iran, however, conveyed a different message. The Iranian Foreign Ministry responded that no new commitments had been made. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized the importance of progress in ending the Lebanon conflict and the exemption from sanctions over nuclear inspections. While the U.S. highlighted "restoring nuclear transparency" as an achievement, Iran focused on "economic sanctions relief."
The sanctions issue is a point of mutual interest for both countries. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Vesent announced that sanctions related to the production, sale, and transportation of Iranian oil would be waived for 60 days. The U.S. views this as a response to Iran's commitment to ensure safe passage through the Hormuz Strait and allow the IAEA team to return.
For Iran, the waiver on oil sanctions represents a tangible benefit for participating in the talks. The U.S. aims to prevent any released funds from being used for nuclear development or supporting Iranian-aligned militant groups. Reports suggest that the U.S. proposed that Iran purchase American agricultural products as a way to monitor fund usage. However, it remains uncertain how far Iran will accept restrictions on the use of these funds. If the pace of sanctions relief and the scope of inspections become intertwined, negotiations could stall again.
The Hormuz issue is also a critical variable. The MOU includes a provision for Iran to guarantee safe and free passage for commercial vessels for 60 days. However, the Iranian military recently mentioned the possibility of re-blockading the strait in response to Israel's attacks in Lebanon. The U.S. countered that navigation remains uninterrupted. The Hill noted that the conflicting messages from both sides are increasing uncertainty regarding the strait and global oil supply outlook.
Actual navigation recovery is also limited. Reuters reported that vessel tracking data indicates some resumption of movement for oil tankers and liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers passing through Hormuz. However, traffic levels have not returned to pre-war standards. There are concerns that some vessels may have turned off their automatic identification systems (AIS) while moving. Even if the strait is open, it may take time to fully restore normal operations.
The Hormuz Strait is a vital corridor for the global energy market, with oil and petroleum products passing through accounting for about 20% of global oil consumption. Any disruption in navigation could simultaneously impact international oil prices, maritime insurance rates, and energy logistics costs. The Hormuz situation has become a litmus test for the implementation of the MOU.
The U.S. is also working to persuade its Gulf allies. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to visit the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, and Bahrain from June 23 to 25. Rubio will discuss the MOU with Iran and the Hormuz issue. In Bahrain, he will meet with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to discuss regional stability measures.
President Donald Trump's tough rhetoric also poses a challenge. On the same day, Trump stated at the White House that negotiations with Iran are progressing well but warned, "If Iran does not keep its promises or behaves improperly, we will do what we have to do." He outlined two principles: an "open strait" and a country that "cannot possess nuclear weapons." While these statements are intended to pressure Iran, they could also provoke backlash.
The initial follow-up meeting has been successful in maintaining a channel for dialogue. However, key issues remain unresolved, including the scope of nuclear inspections, the handling of enriched uranium, the waiver and use of frozen funds, the guarantee of maritime navigation, and stability along the Lebanon front. Both sides have agreed to pursue a final agreement within 60 days through high-level committees and working groups. Yet, the remaining agenda items are unlikely to be easily settled.
The U.S. emphasizes its core principles of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and keeping the Hormuz Strait open. Iran seeks to gain leverage in sanctions relief, securing funds, and issues related to strait navigation and associated costs. While both countries have taken the first step, they interpret the same agreements differently, suggesting a high likelihood of continued conflict before reaching a final agreement.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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