As assessments indicate that Russia is losing its grip on the battlefield in Ukraine, it is reportedly exploring options to open a new front by leveraging its close ally, Belarus.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on June 23, citing current and former Russian and European officials, that Russia has intensified pressure on Belarus since the beginning of this year.
According to the report, Russia is considering using Belarusian territory as a launchpad for expanding its operations in Ukraine or for unconventional operations targeting NATO member states.
Belarus, a bordering country between Russia and Ukraine, has maintained a close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin under President Alexander Lukashenko. Russia utilized Belarusian territory as a route for its advance during the initial invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The WSJ noted that Belarus's status as a site for Russian tactical nuclear weapons could play a crucial role in Russia's escalation plans. Last month, Russia and Belarus conducted joint nuclear exercises, and the defense ministries of both countries released videos claiming to show nuclear warheads being taken from storage and handed over to Belarusian forces.
However, Belarus has maintained a distance from direct involvement in the conflict. Direct participation would also pose a burden for President Lukashenko. Over the past year, U.S. officials have visited Belarus multiple times to encourage it to distance itself from Russia. The U.S. has eased sanctions on Belarusian potassium fertilizers, and President Lukashenko has released around 500 political prisoners following discussions with U.S. officials.
Alexander Pyroznikou, founder of the Eastern European Strategy Forum, which addresses Russia-Belarus issues, stated, "Direct involvement contradicts President Lukashenko's strategic goal of improving relations with the West. His aim appears to be to enhance ties with the West."
Currently, there are no indications that Russia is imminently preparing military operations utilizing Belarus. However, sources indicate that this possibility remains an option.
President Putin has publicly emphasized the need to respond to Ukraine's increased airstrikes targeting Russian territory. According to the TASS news agency, during a cabinet meeting on June 23, Putin stated that the Ukrainian military is intensifying attacks on major Russian regions, including Moscow, and asserted that "the additional threats that the Kyiv regime poses to Russia must be minimized."
He also urged the defense ministry, security agencies, and leaders of government and local governments to respond actively, stating, "This is a challenging task, but it can be adequately addressed." He criticized Ukraine for continuing its attacks to create favorable conditions for resuming peace talks.
Russia's pressure on Belarus coincides with a shift in U.S. assessments regarding the war's dynamics. The Financial Times (FT) reported that U.S. intelligence agencies believed until March that Russia held an advantage in the conflict, but there is now a growing perception that Russia may not achieve its initial war objectives.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov criticized the U.S. on the same day, claiming that it seems to be stepping back from its role as an "objective mediator" in the Ukraine war. This criticism follows reports that U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed positive views on Ukraine's long-range drone operations and agreed to additional sanctions on Russia's energy sector, which has drawn dissatisfaction from Russia.
However, the actual policy changes from President Trump remain uncertain. Senior officials in the Ukrainian government have detected signals that Trump may be becoming more favorable toward stronger support for Kyiv, but they are maintaining a cautious stance, given his history of changing positions.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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