The Trump administration's Iran deal is fueling anxiety among U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf. While hostilities have ceased, concerns are rising that Iran could regain influence through eased sanctions and increased funding, leading to doubts about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees.
According to reports from CNN and Reuters on June 24, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been visiting the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, and Bahrain since June 23 to reassure Gulf nations about their security concerns.
In Kuwait, Rubio stated, "The U.S. will not do anything to undermine the security of our Gulf partners," emphasizing that Washington's security commitments remain intact.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain have relied on their strategic alliance with the U.S. as a cornerstone of their national security for decades.
However, President Trump has approached alliances more as transactional relationships focused on costs and benefits rather than as security communities. Gulf nations are still mindful of the U.S. refraining from direct retaliation against Iran after it was blamed for the 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities.
Since Trump's second term began, Gulf states have pledged significant investments and economic cooperation to maintain their relationship with the U.S. During a visit to Qatar in May of last year, Trump assured, "We will protect this country."
Yet, with the U.S. and Israel initiating military actions against Iran this year, and Iran's retaliatory strikes spreading across the Gulf, the effectiveness of these promises is being put to the test.
Experts believe the recent ceasefire agreement has brought both relief and anxiety to Gulf nations. Hasan Alhassan, a senior researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told CNN, "From the perspective of Arab Gulf states, the Iran war represents a catastrophic turning point in regional security order." He noted that the weakening of U.S. influence in the region and the influx of funds to Iran could embolden Tehran.
Despite these concerns, Gulf nations are not publicly opposing the agreement. The potential for prolonged conflict to directly impact oil facilities, ports, and financial and tourism hubs likely influences their decision to accept an imperfect agreement over escalation.
The lack of suitable alternative security partners also limits the Gulf states' responses. However, some countries are looking to diversify their arms procurement beyond the U.S., considering options like Turkey. There is also a growing sentiment in the region to explore long-term coexistence strategies, such as non-aggression pacts with Iran.
The Washington Post reported that there is a visible sense of disappointment with President Trump within the UAE. Nevertheless, the UAE and other Gulf governments continue to emphasize strengthening ties with the U.S. While the need for American security remains, the trust in that security is not what it once was, making this agreement a catalyst for a reassessment of Gulf nations' diplomatic and security strategies.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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