On June 25, at 10 a.m. KST, South Korea lost 1-0 to South Africa in their final Group A match at the Estadio de Monterrey in Mexico.
With this loss, South Korea finished the group stage with a record of one win and two losses, earning three points. Meanwhile, Mexico secured the top spot in the group with a decisive 3-0 victory over the Czech Republic, finishing with nine points, while South Africa moved into second place with four points (one win, one draw, one loss).
As a result, South Korea dropped to third place in the group, failing to secure direct advancement to the Round of 32. However, they avoided automatic elimination thanks to Mexico's win over the Czech Republic.
This leaves South Korea's chances of advancing to the Round of 32 uncertain. In this tournament, which features 48 teams, the top two teams from each group, along with the eight best third-placed teams, will qualify for the knockout stage. South Korea will need to monitor the results of other groups to determine their fate.
If two or more teams finish with the same points in the third-place standings, rankings will be determined by goal difference, total goals scored, fair play points, and FIFA rankings. Currently, South Korea has three points, a goal difference of -1, and two goals scored.
To advance, at least three other third-placed teams from groups D to L must have lower performance than South Korea. This means that either these teams must have fewer than three points, or if they have three points, they must have a goal difference of less than -1, or if their goal difference is the same, they must have scored fewer than two goals.
Statistical forecasts remain relatively optimistic. According to sports analytics firm Opta, South Korea's probability of advancing to the Round of 32 stands at 87.6%. Despite the shocking defeat, this figure has not dropped significantly from the 90% range prior to the match.
Additionally, Opta predicts that if South Korea qualifies as a third-placed team, they will likely face Egypt in the Round of 32. Currently leading Group G, Egypt will secure the top spot if they win their final match against Iran on June 27.
However, predictions for the subsequent knockout stage are less favorable. Opta estimates Egypt's chances of winning at 48%, while South Korea's probability of advancing to the Round of 16 is only 38.96%.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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