Last week, the New York stock market faced pressure from weakness in tech stocks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell on a weekly basis, with profit-taking pressures particularly affecting semiconductor and large tech companies related to artificial intelligence (AI). Micron showed strength due to strong earnings, but some major stocks like Apple and Microsoft weakened amid concerns over rising memory prices impacting costs.
The biggest variable this week is the June employment report, set to be released on July 2. The market will be looking at the increase in non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and hourly wage growth. If employment is stronger than expected, the possibility of further tightening by the Fed may come back into focus. Conversely, if employment shows signs of slowing, concerns about economic downturns and expectations for easing rate pressures may emerge.
Before the employment report, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for May and the June Consumer Confidence Index will be released on June 30. On July 1, the ADP private employment report, along with the June ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, will be announced. These indicators are likely to serve as key data points for assessing the labor market and manufacturing economy ahead of the employment report.
Comments from Fed officials will also be of interest. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak publicly on July 1. The market is reflecting the potential for interest rate hikes while monitoring inflation pressures and employment trends. If Warsh emphasizes a commitment to price stability, it could weigh on interest-sensitive tech stocks.
Corporate earnings will provide insights into consumer trends. Nike and Constellation Brands are set to report earnings on June 30, while General Mills and FactSet will release their results on July 1. Observers will be keen to see how inflation pressures have impacted the revenues and margins of consumer goods companies.
Geopolitical developments in the Middle East also pose a variable. The U.S. and Iran are continuing negotiations over a ceasefire memorandum of understanding (MOU), but issues related to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the risk of military conflict remain. A rise in oil prices could heighten inflation concerns and interest rate worries.
This week, the New York stock market's trajectory will largely depend on how the employment indicators influence the Fed's interest rate decisions. With major indicators concentrated in this short trading week, investors are likely to remain cautious, closely monitoring large tech stocks, interest rates, and oil price movements.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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