The U.S. negotiation team and an Iranian expert delegation are heading to Doha, Qatar, this week. However, it remains uncertain whether direct talks will actually take place. President Donald Trump stated that "Iran has requested dialogue," asserting that a meeting will occur. In contrast, Iran has rebutted this claim, stating, "There are no scheduled negotiations with the U.S. side." Following military clashes over the Hormuz Strait, the implementation of a ceasefire memorandum of understanding (MOU) appears to be in jeopardy, with both sides sending mixed signals regarding the likelihood of a meeting.
According to Reuters on June 29, the U.S. negotiation team and the Iranian delegation are set to travel to Doha this week. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei stated, "We will not hold any level of negotiations with the U.S. side in the coming days." He clarified that the U.S. delegation's visit to Qatar is unrelated to the Iranian delegation's trip.
The U.S. perspective differs. Trump announced on Truth Social that "Iran has requested a meeting" and confirmed that discussions would take place in Doha on June 30. White House spokesperson Caroline Levitt also noted that Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are traveling to Qatar for high-level discussions. While Trump specified June 30 as the meeting date, the White House only referred to it as "this week," suggesting that final scheduling may not yet be complete.
Iran has emphasized that its purpose for visiting Doha is not to resume negotiations but to verify compliance with existing agreements. Baghaei explained that Iranian experts are going to Qatar to assess the feasibility of oil sales and the use of frozen assets. He stressed that Iran has not yet entered the negotiation phase for a final agreement, stating that the U.S. must first fulfill key provisions before substantive discussions can begin.
Even if direct talks do not occur, there remains the possibility of indirect contact. Reuters reported that U.S. and Iranian technical teams are expected to meet separately with mediators from Qatar and Pakistan. This indicates that, even without formal meetings, discussions on compliance and de-escalation could take place in Doha.
The differing positions of both sides highlight the fragility of the 14-point MOU signed on June 17, which called for discussions on a final peace agreement within 60 days. However, tensions resurfaced over issues related to the Hormuz Strait and military conflict responsibilities. The U.S. has recently blamed Iran for attacks on commercial vessels, leading to airstrikes on Iranian military facilities. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes targeting U.S. military bases in the Gulf region.
Following the weekend clashes, hostilities appear to have paused. The Associated Press reported that Iran may assess whether the cessation of attacks is maintained before deciding on returning to negotiations. This suggests that the Doha meetings may serve as a test to prevent further escalation rather than directly leading to a final agreement.
A key issue for the Doha meetings is the management of the Hormuz Strait. According to Bloomberg, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated on state television that discussions will focus on management strategies for the Strait with Oman. He indicated that Iran would pursue independent plans for managing vessel movements, even if Oman does not cooperate, warning that ships using unapproved routes would be blocked.
Iran claims it has the right to manage shipping routes and vessel passage based on the MOU provisions, which state that Iran will do its utmost to ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels. Iran has stated it will not impose transit fees for 60 days but has left the door open for potential charges afterward.
The U.S. opposes this stance, arguing that the Hormuz Strait, as an international waterway, must guarantee free passage for vessels. The U.S. has also rejected any imposition of fees or charges. Oman has echoed this sentiment, asserting that no costs should be levied on vessels passing through the Strait.
The issue of frozen assets also remains a variable. Reuters reported that Iranian President Masoud Fazelikian stated that $6 billion of the $12 billion in assets frozen in Qatar would be released and returned. Fazelikian described the MOU as a "victory for the Iranian people," asserting on X that "the agreement is a mutual issue," and that "if the U.S. keeps its promises, Iran will fulfill its obligations as well."
Trump has also expressed caution regarding the potential outcomes of the Doha talks, telling reporters at the White House that the meeting could be significant or not. He emphasized that the U.S. maintains a military advantage, reiterating that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is a primary goal.
While both sides are heading to Doha, leaving room for dialogue, the U.S. is prioritizing the resumption of talks, while Iran focuses on verifying compliance with existing agreements. The uncertainty surrounding direct negotiations remains, as significant gaps persist over Hormuz Strait management, the release of frozen assets, and Iran's nuclear program. Unless these differences are bridged, the upcoming meetings are likely to serve more as a temporary measure to prevent a breakdown of the ceasefire rather than a breakthrough toward a final agreement.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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