More than 10 domestic and foreign institutions project the economy to grow in the 3 percent range, well above the Bank of Korea’s latest forecast of around 2 percent, with some even forecasting around 4 percent.
British research firm Capital Economics recently raised its forecast for Korea’s real gross domestic product growth this year to 4.0 percent. The firm had projected growth of 1.0 percent in February, before lifting the estimate to 1.6 percent in March, 2.7 percent in April and 4.0 percent last month. It reportedly cited stronger exports driven by demand related to artificial intelligence.
Among 42 domestic and foreign institutions tracked by Bloomberg, 11 have forecast Korea’s economy to grow by 3 percent or more this year.
Korean Reinsurance Co. gave the highest estimate at 4.1 percent, followed by Capital Economics at 4.0 percent.
JPMorgan projected growth of 3.7 percent, while National Australia Bank, ANZ and iM Securities each forecast 3.6 percent. Bloomberg Economics and Citi each projected 3.5 percent growth.
Bank of America and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group each forecast 3.1 percent, while ING Financial Markets and Germany’s DekaBank each projected 3.0 percent.
Citi reportedly raised its Korea growth forecast on Tuesday to 3.5 percent from 3.1 percent. The bank was said to have reflected stronger-than-expected economic indicators in April and May, infrastructure investment linked to technology-related capital spending and the possibility of a second supplementary budget worth more than 25 trillion won by early September.
Domestic research institutions are also revising their forecasts upward.
Woori Finance Research Institute raised its 2026 growth forecast for Korea to 3.0 percent in an economic brief released Tuesday - up 1 percentage point from its previous consensus. The institute said stronger exports and investment led by the semiconductor sector, along with the expected impact of supplementary budget spending, would largely offset the oil price shock from the Middle East war.
The Bank of Korea raised its growth forecast in May to 2.6 percent from 2.0 percent.
Korea’s real GDP grew 1.8 percent in the first quarter from three months earlier and 3.8 percent on year.
The Korea Development Institute, a state-run think tank, forecast in May that the Korean economy would grow 2.5 percent this year, supported by strong semiconductor exports and an improving domestic demand recovery.
KDI expected exports to rise 4.6 percent this year on the back of robust chip shipments, while facility investment was also projected to post relatively solid growth due to strong investment demand in the semiconductor sector.
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