The Wall Street Journal reported on June 30 that "Ukrainian drone strikes have repeatedly halted Russian oil facilities, leading to a fuel shortage that is turning into a political crisis for President Putin."
Ukraine has recently enhanced its drone and missile capabilities, expanding its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. A key oil facility in Moscow was destroyed on June 18, exacerbating the fuel shortage in central Russia.
Sergei Bakulenko, former chief strategist at Russian oil company Gazprom Neft, estimated that as of June 20, about 28% of Russia's refining capacity had been shut down. He characterized the situation as a "physical fuel shortage" rather than a mere logistics issue or market imbalance.
The Russian government is taking steps to address the crisis. Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson for the Kremlin, announced that "for the first time in decades, Russia is seeking to import fuel." The country has already banned the export of gasoline and jet fuel, and President Putin has indicated he is considering a ban on diesel exports as well.
The fuel crisis is affecting the daily lives of Russian citizens. In Moscow, the number of closed gas stations is rising, and those that remain open are seeing customers wait for hours. Some regions are implementing measures to limit the amount of fuel each vehicle can receive or restricting refueling to registered local vehicles only.
On June 28, President Putin publicly acknowledged for the first time that fuel shortages are a real issue. He stated, "There are still problems for drivers and businesses," noting that there are lines at gas stations and that sometimes it is difficult to find the desired gasoline. He also mentioned that the agricultural sector is facing challenges during the summer harvest season.
Experts believe that Putin's direct mention of the fuel crisis underscores its seriousness. Yanis Kluege from the German Institute for International Security Affairs remarked, "The crisis has become so widespread that it is dangerous for Putin not to address it."
The political burden may intensify as the September elections approach. While the likelihood of free and fair elections in Russia is low, the electoral climate could provide an opportunity for public discontent to surface. Long wait times at gas stations and rising prices are contributing to war fatigue among the populace.
Ukraine has been targeting Russian oil facilities for over three years, but this year, the pace of attacks has outstripped Russia's ability to recover. International sanctions have also limited the import of equipment necessary for repairing these facilities.
President Putin has shown no inclination to pursue a ceasefire or limit long-range attacks. However, as Ukraine's strikes on oil facilities lead to fuel shortages and logistical disruptions, internal dissatisfaction with the prolonged war in Russia may continue to grow.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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