As Canada prepares to announce its preferred contractor for a new submarine program worth up to 60 trillion won, the Ottawa Citizen reported on July 3 that the announcement is likely to come on Monday, July 6.
The report noted, "Many defense industry insiders expect the announcement of the submarine contractor to be made on Monday, July 6, as Prime Minister Mark Carney will attend the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, the following day, making it an optimal time for the Liberal government."
The article added, "The decision to purchase submarines could serve as another example of how Canada is seriously committed to rearming its military, showcasing this to NATO allies."
Originally, the Canadian government planned to announce the preferred contractor by the end of June, but discussions have extended into early July without a decision. Local media expect an announcement before the NATO summit, scheduled for July 7-9.
Canada aims to replace its aging fleet of four Victoria-class submarines with a new fleet of up to 12 submarines. The final contenders for the project, narrowed down last August, are Hanwha Ocean's KSS-III Batch II and Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) 212CD.
Evaluation Criteria
According to Canadian media, the evaluation criteria for selecting the preferred contractor include: sustainability (maintenance, repair, operation, and support plans) at 50%, submarine platform (technical specifications, stealth, ice operation capabilities, and military performance) at 20%, financial factors (submarine construction costs) at 15%, and strategic and economic partnerships (investment, job creation, and alignment with Canada's geopolitical goals) at 15%.
The Ottawa Citizen explained that the submarine platform criteria are likely to play a decisive role, as Prime Minister Carney stated last September that both Hanwha and TKMS meet the Canadian Navy's very high requirements. It noted that choosing TKMS would strengthen Canada's long-standing alliance with Europe, while selecting Hanwha Ocean would signal a strategic response to China's growing influence in the Asia-Pacific region.
The economic impact of the submarine construction is also a significant evaluation factor. The Canadian government has expressed expectations of substantial economic benefits from the project. Hanwha has promised to create a total of 430,000 jobs and generate $96.3 billion (approximately 147 trillion won) in economic impact through partnerships with Canadian companies in the steel, AI, and space sectors. TKMS has also projected the creation of 650,000 jobs and an economic impact of $86 billion through similar partnerships.
However, the Ottawa Citizen cautioned that these figures are "tentative, as most, if not all, of the partnership agreements are contingent on winning the contract, meaning no results can be expected from the losing bidders." It added, "Given that this submarine construction program will unfold over decades, the actual job creation and financial benefits for Canada will be difficult to ascertain for a long time."
Timeliness of delivery is also a crucial factor. Canadian Pacific Fleet Commander David Patchell emphasized the urgency in May, stating, "We needed new submarines yesterday." Currently, Canada has a fleet of four Victoria-class submarines, with only one operational. Hanwha Ocean has an advantage in delivery timelines, promising to deliver four submarines by 2035, with the first one due in 2032, while TKMS has stated it can deliver four submarines by 2036.
However, the Canadian naval publication Canadian Naval Review pointed out that the Canadian government's evaluation criteria do not include delivery timelines. It noted that TKMS's proposal includes an offer to expedite the delivery of one submarine each to Canada, Germany, and Norway, but questioned the binding nature of this commitment and whether negotiations among the three countries would be feasible. The publication raised concerns that the current submarine replacement project might prioritize economic objectives over national defense needs.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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