In May 2026, the Middle East once again demonstrated its volatility as the United States and Iran came perilously close to military confrontation. The global economy held its breath amid rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a spike in international oil prices and market instability. Countries worldwide were on high alert, fearing a potential full-scale war in the region. Fortunately, reports indicated that the U.S. and Iran were nearing an agreement to extend a ceasefire and sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU) for peace negotiations. This agreement, which includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, partially resuming Iranian oil exports, and restarting nuclear talks, is expected to temporarily alleviate immediate economic concerns. However, it is important to note that this is merely a 'stopgap' solution. The underlying issues in the Middle East remain unresolved, including deep-seated distrust between the U.S. and Iran, ongoing conflicts involving Israel and Hezbollah, and the historical Sunni-Shia divide, all intertwined with oil, religion, and geopolitical power struggles.
The Middle East now requires a new civilizational order that goes beyond a simple ceasefire. Achieving this balance cannot rely solely on military might. Ultimately, a new peace framework is needed, one that recognizes Judaism, Christianity, and Islam as 'brother civilizations' rather than adversaries. I propose calling this framework the 'Noah Covenant.'
The Middle East now requires a new civilizational order that goes beyond a simple ceasefire. Achieving this balance cannot rely solely on military might. Ultimately, a new peace framework is needed, one that recognizes Judaism, Christianity, and Islam as 'brother civilizations' rather than adversaries. I propose calling this framework the 'Noah Covenant.'
The Strait of Hormuz is not just a maritime route; it is a critical artery for global oil transportation. Approximately 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products pass through this narrow waterway daily, accounting for about one-fifth of the world's oil consumption. Oil and LNG from Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iraq flow through this route to Asia and Europe. For industrial nations in Northeast Asia, including South Korea, Japan, and China, the Strait of Hormuz is a lifeline. A significant portion of South Korea's oil imports transit through this area, making the stability of this route vital for the country's refining, petrochemical, steel, and shipping industries. Thus, instability in the Strait of Hormuz is not merely a regional issue; it poses a direct risk to the South Korean economy.
During the recent crisis between the U.S. and Iran, global financial markets reacted swiftly. International oil prices surged under pressure, with Brent and WTI crude experiencing significant fluctuations as the Middle East risk premium was factored in. Shipping insurance rates and oil transportation costs also rose. Stock markets in South Korea and Japan saw volatile trading, particularly among energy and defense-related stocks, as global investors flocked to safe assets like the dollar and gold. The primary concern was clear: what would happen if the Strait of Hormuz were actually blocked? The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has previously used tactics such as mine-laying, tanker seizures, and drone threats to effectively hold the Strait as a 'strategic hostage.' In response, the U.S. has significantly bolstered its military presence in the region with aircraft carriers, strategic bombers, and missile defense systems.
The situation remained perilous. Within the U.S., discussions arose about launching additional bunker-buster attacks on Iran's underground nuclear facilities in Isfahan, while Iran kept the door open for asymmetric retaliation against U.S. bases and allies. If military conflict had erupted, projections indicated that oil prices could have soared above $150 per barrel, potentially triggering simultaneous inflation and supply chain shocks in the global economy. Thus, the ceasefire agreement was an unavoidable choice for the sake of the world's economic stability.
The key objective of this ceasefire is to 'buy time.' The draft MOU between the U.S. and Iran outlines three main points: first, reopening the Strait of Hormuz; second, extending the ceasefire for 60 days; and third, pursuing peace negotiations, including nuclear talks, during this period. On the surface, this appears to be a significant advancement. Iran has promised to remove mines from the Strait and ensure freedom of navigation, while the U.S. is set to allow some Iranian oil exports and ease port blockades. Both sides will also bring uranium enrichment and high-enriched uranium issues to the negotiation table. However, neither side has made fundamental concessions. The U.S. emphasizes the principle of 'rewarding results,' meaning it will only ease sanctions if Iran takes verifiable steps toward nuclear disarmament. Conversely, Iran maintains that 'preemptive concessions are impossible,' particularly regarding the issue of approximately 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, which is tied to its internal politics and the pride of the Revolutionary Guard.
President Donald Trump aims to frame this as a strategic victory for the U.S., while Iran insists that it must not be perceived as 'capitulation.' This reflects the deep-seated distrust between the two nations. The U.S. suspects that 'Iran is trying to buy time to become a threshold nuclear state,' while Iran believes that 'the U.S. can overturn agreements at any time.' The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed during the Obama administration, effectively collapsed after the Trump administration's unilateral withdrawal. From Iran's perspective, trusting U.S. promises is difficult, while the U.S. finds it hard to trust Iran's nuclear activities. Therefore, achieving a final agreement in these negotiations within a short timeframe is unlikely.
Moreover, nuclear negotiations are not resolved overnight. Issues such as high-enriched uranium processing, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) verification, inspections, facility access, sanctions relief, and unfreezing assets can take months or even years to address. Additionally, Iran is believed to possess a significant amount of 60% enriched uranium, which cannot be resolved through mere political declarations. Ultimately, this 60-day negotiation period is more about avoiding catastrophe than completing a peace agreement. It is likely that a 'long-term provisional agreement' will persist for several months or years, maintaining an unstable balance that avoids full-scale war but does not achieve complete peace.
Why is Iran a nation that the U.S. cannot easily manage? The U.S. is the world's strongest military power, but Iran is not simply a weak nation. Iran is the heir to a 5,000-year-old Persian civilization. The ancient Persian Empire once dominated Mesopotamia, Central Asia, and the entire Middle East. Today, while Iran faces economic challenges, its historical pride and geopolitical survival instincts remain robust. The Iranian leadership is more accustomed to long-term attrition and asymmetric strategies than to direct confrontations with the U.S. They prefer to utilize the Strait of Hormuz, Shia networks, drone warfare, proxy wars, and psychological operations rather than engage in outright conflict. This is why, despite its overwhelming firepower, the U.S. struggles to maintain stable control over the entire Middle East.
Furthermore, Iran is not just a single nation. It has a vast geopolitical network connected to Shia militias in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Houthi rebels in Yemen. While the U.S. and Israel may hold military superiority, stabilizing the Middle East in the long term presents a different challenge. Additionally, the U.S. is grappling with war fatigue after the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts, leading to deep skepticism about 'endless wars' in the Middle East. This is why President Trump maintains a tough stance while keeping diplomatic avenues open. Ultimately, the current situation in the Middle East is shifting from a simple military victory to a question of 'who will design the order in the long term.'
Now, the 'Noah Covenant' is needed. Today, the Middle East is undergoing some changes through the Abraham Accords, with countries like Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco normalizing relations. However, this is not enough. True peace is only possible when Judaism, Christianity, and Islam recognize their common roots. Both the Bible and the Quran, along with Jewish tradition, regard Noah as a common ancestor of humanity. Abraham is also ultimately part of Noah's lineage. It is essential to recognize that Jews, Arabs, and Persians are not entirely different entities but intertwined brother civilizations throughout history. I wish to call this the 'Noah Covenant.' The Noah Covenant is not merely a diplomatic agreement; it is a declaration of mutual recognition among civilizations.
First, it acknowledges each other's right to exist.
Second, it establishes principles of religious coexistence.
Third, it transforms oil and energy from a basis for war into a foundation for shared prosperity.
Fourth, it builds a new economic order in the Middle East that aligns with the AI era.
The Middle East is a land of civilization before it is a land of oil. It is where Persian and Arabian, Hebrew and Mesopotamian civilizations intersected, a place where humanity's religions, philosophies, and trade converged. Yet today, the world views the Middle East solely through the lens of war, terrorism, and oil disputes. However, the region is also entering an era of AI, semiconductors, digital finance, and smart city competition. Saudi Arabia's NEOM city, the UAE's AI national strategy, and Qatar's energy and logistics hub strategy all reflect a trend preparing for a 'post-oil' era. Iran, too, will find it challenging to shape its future without cooperating with the international community in the long term. Ultimately, the Middle East is entering an era where it can no longer survive solely by past methods.
What should South Korea prepare for? South Korea must not view this situation as merely a diplomatic news story. First, energy security is crucial. South Korea has a high dependence on Middle Eastern oil. Instability in the Strait of Hormuz translates directly to economic risk for South Korea. Expanding strategic oil reserves and diversifying supply sources are essential. Second, there are opportunities in shipbuilding, shipping, and defense industries. As tensions rise in the Middle East, demand for LNG carriers, oil tankers, and defense products is likely to increase. South Korean companies should connect geopolitical risks with industrial strategies. Third, a balanced approach to Middle Eastern diplomacy is necessary. While South Korea is an ally of the U.S., it must also maintain close economic cooperation with Middle Eastern oil-producing countries. A pragmatic balance in diplomacy is needed, avoiding excessive leaning toward one side. Fourth, South Korea should consider its role as a 'civilizational mediator.' It is a rare country that has experienced colonization, war, industrialization, and democratization simultaneously. It is also a nation that has experienced both Eastern and Western influences, as well as tradition and modernity.
In the AI era, the world is once again questioning the balance between humanity and civilization, religion and technology. South Korea must transcend being merely an economic nation and serve as a platform for civilizational dialogue and peace. The Middle East stands at a crossroads between war and peace. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is an important first step. However, silence does not equate to peace. True peace begins with recognizing that we are all human and part of the same civilization, rather than seeking to eliminate one another. Just as humanity rebuilt civilization after Noah's flood, the Middle East must also establish a new order of coexistence.
The recent ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran may be recorded not just as a military compromise but as a pivotal moment where human civilization turned away from the brink of catastrophe once again. The world is entering a massive transition marked by the AI revolution, geopolitical conflicts, energy restructuring, and civilizational clashes. In such times, military power alone cannot stabilize the world. Ultimately, a profound understanding of humanity and civilization, along with a philosophy that acknowledges each other's existence, is necessary.
The 'Noah Covenant' poses these questions: Can humanity coexist after war? Can different religions and civilizations coexist? Can we discover a common fate beyond oil, nuclear weapons, and hegemony? This may indeed be the new path of civilization that humanity must pursue in the AI era.
※ This article was generated using generative AI and has been reviewed by an editor.
The situation remained perilous. Within the U.S., discussions arose about launching additional bunker-buster attacks on Iran's underground nuclear facilities in Isfahan, while Iran kept the door open for asymmetric retaliation against U.S. bases and allies. If military conflict had erupted, projections indicated that oil prices could have soared above $150 per barrel, potentially triggering simultaneous inflation and supply chain shocks in the global economy. Thus, the ceasefire agreement was an unavoidable choice for the sake of the world's economic stability.
The key objective of this ceasefire is to 'buy time.' The draft MOU between the U.S. and Iran outlines three main points: first, reopening the Strait of Hormuz; second, extending the ceasefire for 60 days; and third, pursuing peace negotiations, including nuclear talks, during this period. On the surface, this appears to be a significant advancement. Iran has promised to remove mines from the Strait and ensure freedom of navigation, while the U.S. is set to allow some Iranian oil exports and ease port blockades. Both sides will also bring uranium enrichment and high-enriched uranium issues to the negotiation table. However, neither side has made fundamental concessions. The U.S. emphasizes the principle of 'rewarding results,' meaning it will only ease sanctions if Iran takes verifiable steps toward nuclear disarmament. Conversely, Iran maintains that 'preemptive concessions are impossible,' particularly regarding the issue of approximately 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, which is tied to its internal politics and the pride of the Revolutionary Guard.
President Donald Trump aims to frame this as a strategic victory for the U.S., while Iran insists that it must not be perceived as 'capitulation.' This reflects the deep-seated distrust between the two nations. The U.S. suspects that 'Iran is trying to buy time to become a threshold nuclear state,' while Iran believes that 'the U.S. can overturn agreements at any time.' The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed during the Obama administration, effectively collapsed after the Trump administration's unilateral withdrawal. From Iran's perspective, trusting U.S. promises is difficult, while the U.S. finds it hard to trust Iran's nuclear activities. Therefore, achieving a final agreement in these negotiations within a short timeframe is unlikely.
Moreover, nuclear negotiations are not resolved overnight. Issues such as high-enriched uranium processing, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) verification, inspections, facility access, sanctions relief, and unfreezing assets can take months or even years to address. Additionally, Iran is believed to possess a significant amount of 60% enriched uranium, which cannot be resolved through mere political declarations. Ultimately, this 60-day negotiation period is more about avoiding catastrophe than completing a peace agreement. It is likely that a 'long-term provisional agreement' will persist for several months or years, maintaining an unstable balance that avoids full-scale war but does not achieve complete peace.
Why is Iran a nation that the U.S. cannot easily manage? The U.S. is the world's strongest military power, but Iran is not simply a weak nation. Iran is the heir to a 5,000-year-old Persian civilization. The ancient Persian Empire once dominated Mesopotamia, Central Asia, and the entire Middle East. Today, while Iran faces economic challenges, its historical pride and geopolitical survival instincts remain robust. The Iranian leadership is more accustomed to long-term attrition and asymmetric strategies than to direct confrontations with the U.S. They prefer to utilize the Strait of Hormuz, Shia networks, drone warfare, proxy wars, and psychological operations rather than engage in outright conflict. This is why, despite its overwhelming firepower, the U.S. struggles to maintain stable control over the entire Middle East.
Furthermore, Iran is not just a single nation. It has a vast geopolitical network connected to Shia militias in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Houthi rebels in Yemen. While the U.S. and Israel may hold military superiority, stabilizing the Middle East in the long term presents a different challenge. Additionally, the U.S. is grappling with war fatigue after the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts, leading to deep skepticism about 'endless wars' in the Middle East. This is why President Trump maintains a tough stance while keeping diplomatic avenues open. Ultimately, the current situation in the Middle East is shifting from a simple military victory to a question of 'who will design the order in the long term.'
Now, the 'Noah Covenant' is needed. Today, the Middle East is undergoing some changes through the Abraham Accords, with countries like Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco normalizing relations. However, this is not enough. True peace is only possible when Judaism, Christianity, and Islam recognize their common roots. Both the Bible and the Quran, along with Jewish tradition, regard Noah as a common ancestor of humanity. Abraham is also ultimately part of Noah's lineage. It is essential to recognize that Jews, Arabs, and Persians are not entirely different entities but intertwined brother civilizations throughout history. I wish to call this the 'Noah Covenant.' The Noah Covenant is not merely a diplomatic agreement; it is a declaration of mutual recognition among civilizations.
First, it acknowledges each other's right to exist.
Second, it establishes principles of religious coexistence.
Third, it transforms oil and energy from a basis for war into a foundation for shared prosperity.
Fourth, it builds a new economic order in the Middle East that aligns with the AI era.
The Middle East is a land of civilization before it is a land of oil. It is where Persian and Arabian, Hebrew and Mesopotamian civilizations intersected, a place where humanity's religions, philosophies, and trade converged. Yet today, the world views the Middle East solely through the lens of war, terrorism, and oil disputes. However, the region is also entering an era of AI, semiconductors, digital finance, and smart city competition. Saudi Arabia's NEOM city, the UAE's AI national strategy, and Qatar's energy and logistics hub strategy all reflect a trend preparing for a 'post-oil' era. Iran, too, will find it challenging to shape its future without cooperating with the international community in the long term. Ultimately, the Middle East is entering an era where it can no longer survive solely by past methods.
What should South Korea prepare for? South Korea must not view this situation as merely a diplomatic news story. First, energy security is crucial. South Korea has a high dependence on Middle Eastern oil. Instability in the Strait of Hormuz translates directly to economic risk for South Korea. Expanding strategic oil reserves and diversifying supply sources are essential. Second, there are opportunities in shipbuilding, shipping, and defense industries. As tensions rise in the Middle East, demand for LNG carriers, oil tankers, and defense products is likely to increase. South Korean companies should connect geopolitical risks with industrial strategies. Third, a balanced approach to Middle Eastern diplomacy is necessary. While South Korea is an ally of the U.S., it must also maintain close economic cooperation with Middle Eastern oil-producing countries. A pragmatic balance in diplomacy is needed, avoiding excessive leaning toward one side. Fourth, South Korea should consider its role as a 'civilizational mediator.' It is a rare country that has experienced colonization, war, industrialization, and democratization simultaneously. It is also a nation that has experienced both Eastern and Western influences, as well as tradition and modernity.
In the AI era, the world is once again questioning the balance between humanity and civilization, religion and technology. South Korea must transcend being merely an economic nation and serve as a platform for civilizational dialogue and peace. The Middle East stands at a crossroads between war and peace. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is an important first step. However, silence does not equate to peace. True peace begins with recognizing that we are all human and part of the same civilization, rather than seeking to eliminate one another. Just as humanity rebuilt civilization after Noah's flood, the Middle East must also establish a new order of coexistence.
The recent ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran may be recorded not just as a military compromise but as a pivotal moment where human civilization turned away from the brink of catastrophe once again. The world is entering a massive transition marked by the AI revolution, geopolitical conflicts, energy restructuring, and civilizational clashes. In such times, military power alone cannot stabilize the world. Ultimately, a profound understanding of humanity and civilization, along with a philosophy that acknowledges each other's existence, is necessary.
The 'Noah Covenant' poses these questions: Can humanity coexist after war? Can different religions and civilizations coexist? Can we discover a common fate beyond oil, nuclear weapons, and hegemony? This may indeed be the new path of civilization that humanity must pursue in the AI era.
※ This article was generated using generative AI and has been reviewed by an editor.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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