The United States and Iran continue to engage in military clashes over the Strait of Hormuz, but analysts suggest that neither side can fundamentally change the current situation through military action.
According to a report on July 13 by the prominent Arab media outlet Al Jazeera, Trita Parsi, a deputy director at the Quincy Institute, stated that the current tensions stem from differing interpretations of the management plan for the Strait of Hormuz outlined in a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed on June 16.
Parsi noted, "There were clearly ambiguous parts in the MOU, which was necessary to reach an agreement quickly, but the fact that both sides interpreted some provisions entirely differently became a critical issue."
However, he believes that military action will not change the balance of power. Parsi remarked, "This engagement appears much more intense than before, but at best, both sides will return to the negotiating table after the clashes end. They may realize that neither can change the status quo and will need to find some form of compromise." He added, "As with previous wars, military actions from either side are unlikely to alter the fundamental situation."
Parsi also pointed out that while both sides have low trust in diplomacy, the perception that they cannot afford another prolonged conflict is stronger. He suggested that this reality could prevent the clashes from escalating to an uncontrollable level.
In particular, he assessed that the global oil inventory has not sufficiently recovered, which increases the burden of a prolonged conflict. Parsi stated, "Global oil inventories have not been replenished adequately, and the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve is also at a much lower level. Iran has also reduced its maritime oil holdings compared to February." He explained that the time available to endure a serious oil crisis has become much shorter than it was in February, making a prolonged war a burdensome choice for both sides.
Furthermore, Parsi believes that the U.S. could weaken Iran's ability to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz over time. However, he cautioned, "The question is how long that process will take and how much damage the oil market will suffer, which could be a political disaster and nightmare for the Trump administration."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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