Amid a recent sharp decline in the KOSPI, investor sentiment has soured, drawing renewed attention to a report from a securities firm that accurately predicted the domestic stock market's peak two months ago. The analyst who made that prediction now states, "The KOSPI has technically reached a bottom," suggesting the possibility of surpassing 10,000 points in the long term, which has piqued investor interest.
Lee Jae-man, head of global investment analysis at Hana Securities, indicated in a report titled "KOSPI, Now Entering the 10,000P Era" released in May that a key signal of a bull market would be when SK Hynix's market capitalization surpasses that of Samsung Electronics.
At that time, he analyzed that the phenomenon of SK Hynix, which has lower profit forecasts than Samsung Electronics for 2026-2027, leading in market capitalization, is a typical sign of market overheating.
Indeed, SK Hynix's market capitalization exceeded that of Samsung Electronics for the first time in June, coinciding with the KOSPI breaking through the 9,100 mark, marking a historical peak. However, the KOSPI subsequently underwent significant corrections, leading to a sharp decline in investor sentiment.
Having accurately predicted the market peak, Lee has now released a new analysis stating, "The current market has technically entered a low point." He diagnosed that the recent decline is more indicative of an 'oversold condition' due to a rapid contraction in investor sentiment rather than a deterioration in corporate performance or a collapse of economic fundamentals.
Considering the long-term growth potential of domestic companies, he maintained that the KOSPI has ample room for recovery and could challenge levels beyond 10,000 points, potentially reaching as high as 11,000 points in the long run.
He supported this outlook with projections of corporate earnings and historical average price-to-earnings ratios (PER). Applying the expected net income of KOSPI-listed companies for 2027 and the historical average PER suggests that a KOSPI index exceeding 10,000 points is theoretically possible.
However, opinions on this forecast are sharply divided in the market.
Retail investors who have suffered significant losses in the recent downturn are cautiously optimistic about the hopeful outlook but remain concerned about volatility.
Online comments reflect this sentiment: "I’m just getting through today with mental victories," "If it goes back to 9,000, I’ll never invest in stocks again," "If we don’t address the leverage issue, foreign investors will continue to shake the market," "We need to set stop-loss criteria rather than just waiting for a rebound," and "In the market, responding is more important than predicting. Managing cash reserves should be a priority."
Some investors specifically pointed to leveraged ETFs and program trading as factors behind the excessive market volatility, expressing concerns that without structural improvements, high volatility could persist even after a rebound.
Conversely, some view the current correction as a necessary pause for a long-term upward trend, suggesting that investors consider gradual purchases of quality stocks.
Meanwhile, analysts predict that while short-term volatility may continue, future corporate performance, the global semiconductor market, and changes in foreign investment will be key variables determining the direction of the domestic stock market in the second half of the year.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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