The 최종현학술원 (Choi Jong-hyun Academic Institute) and the Republic of Korea Navy examined the economic and security impacts of maritime trade route crises and discussed South Korea's response strategies.
On July 14, the two organizations held a joint forum titled 'When the Sea Shakes, the Nation Shakes' at the Korea Higher Education Foundation conference hall in Gangnam, Seoul.
Attendees included Admiral Kim Kyung-ryul, Chief of Naval Operations; Jeong Hyeong-gon, Senior Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy; Colonel Yoo Jae-jun of the Navy; Kwon Bo-ram, Research Fellow at the Korea Defense Research Institute; Kim In-hyun, Emeritus Professor at Korea University Law School; and Kim Tae-yu, Emeritus Professor at Seoul National University’s Department of Industrial Engineering.
Participants discussed the impact of instability in key maritime trade routes on energy supply, supply chains, and manufacturing production, as well as strategies encompassing naval power, shipping and shipbuilding industries, and international law.
Admiral Kim Kyung-ryul stated, "As a maritime nation that has grown through the sea, instability in maritime trade routes directly affects our economy and security. The government, industry, academia, and military must work together to develop response strategies."
Jeong Hyeong-gon explained that South Korea's economy heavily relies on maritime transport for most imports and energy supplies. Approximately 99.9% of import volumes and 97.9% of export volumes are transported by sea, with about 96% of energy imports also relying on maritime routes.
He noted, "While some high-value products like semiconductors can be transported by air, most energy, raw materials, and components come by sea. Disruptions in maritime routes affect logistics and the competitiveness of manufacturing and exports."
Recent instability in the Middle East has led to simultaneous price increases and reduced imports of key raw materials such as crude oil, propane, butane, and naphtha, impacting sectors like petrochemicals, semiconductors, and batteries.
Jeong suggested moving away from a cost-cutting supply chain strategy to one that enhances risk management and resilience, advocating for a system that allows real-time analysis of supply chain risks by the government and businesses.
Colonel Yoo Jae-jun assessed that the U.S. is shifting its strategy from maintaining maritime order unilaterally to sharing roles with allied nations. He argued that South Korea should strengthen its shipbuilding, defense, and advanced technology capabilities based on the Korea-U.S. alliance to enhance strategic response capabilities.
He also emphasized the need for a Korean maritime domain awareness system that connects surveillance assets such as ships, submarines, maritime patrol aircraft, satellites, and radars, along with an AI-based command and control system.
Kwon Bo-ram analyzed that the U.S. is likely to move away from a system that fully guarantees the safety of all major maritime chokepoints, requiring allies and regional countries to share responsibilities.
Kwon stated, "South Korea should consider ways to contribute to maintaining maritime trade routes, rather than merely benefiting from the maritime order."
Emeritus Professor Kim In-hyun proposed expanding a national control fleet centered on national flag vessels capable of transporting strategic materials during crises. The idea is to secure vessels that can operate commercially during peacetime but be utilized for government transport in emergencies.
He explained that a system should be established to maintain the transport of strategic materials even in wartime or conflict situations by linking the essential vessel system with naval escort systems.
Emeritus Professor Kim Tae-yu predicted that if the Arctic route is fully utilized, diversifying energy import routes and protecting transport vessels could emerge as new maritime security challenges.
Participants concluded that the stability of maritime trade routes is not just a military issue but also an economic security matter affecting energy, supply chains, and manufacturing competitiveness, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive response system that includes diplomacy, defense, shipping and shipbuilding, and legal frameworks.
Meanwhile, the ongoing war in the Middle East, which began on February 28, continues to heighten uncertainties in international oil prices and global supply chains.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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