The military tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated, plunging the Middle East into further chaos, even after the signing of a ceasefire memorandum of understanding (MOU).
Analysts suggest that both sides are employing pressure tactics to gain leverage in negotiations, raising concerns that this could lead to full-scale war.
According to Yonhap News on July 18, despite a 60-day additional ceasefire period following the MOU, both the U.S. and Iran have intensified military operations, heightening tensions. The two sides resumed armed clashes after negotiations for a peace settlement collapsed on July 12, just before reaching an agreement.
The U.S. Central Command reported that it has been conducting nighttime airstrikes targeting Iran for a week. The U.S. is focusing on military supply infrastructure, including bridges, railways, and roads near the Strait of Hormuz, and has deployed approximately 2,000 troops from the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit to waters near Iran.
Additionally, the Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. is reinforcing its military presence in the region by redeploying fighter jets from European bases.
Iran is also ramping up its retaliatory actions. Following attacks on U.S. military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, as well as power plants and desalination facilities, Iran has expanded its range of attacks to include U.S. allies such as Qatar, Oman, Iraq, and Jordan.
Experts believe that the military actions from both sides are more about positioning for future negotiations rather than an immediate intention for full-scale war. The U.S. aims to weaken Iran's military influence in the Strait of Hormuz to enhance its negotiating power, while Iran seeks to escalate tensions in the Gulf region to drive up international oil prices and prepare for a prolonged conflict.
Both sides appear to be cautious about completely dismantling the ceasefire framework. The Wall Street Journal noted that the potential shock of soaring global oil prices, along with the costs of post-war reconstruction and domestic economic discontent, weigh heavily on Iran. Similarly, the U.S. must consider the political and economic costs associated with a prolonged conflict in the Middle East.
However, experts warn that the current limited clashes could spiral out of control at any moment. Iranian security expert Sayyed Golkar from Tennessee told the Wall Street Journal, "This escalation is rapidly intensifying and is slipping out of control. There is a risk that both sides could inadvertently return to full-scale war, even if they do not desire it."
Ultimately, the key variable remains the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transport. Iran is determined to maintain its influence over the strait at any cost, while the U.S. aims to achieve its strategic goal of compelling Iran to abandon its nuclear development through normalized navigation.
Hamid Reza Azizi, a visiting researcher at the German Institute for International Security Affairs, told the Wall Street Journal, "Both sides are likely to engage in a long-term battle of patience, accepting domestic political and economic burdens to extract concessions from each other."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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