As tensions escalate between China and the Philippines following physical clashes in the South China Sea, the foreign ministers of both countries are set to meet for the first time in two years, aiming to prevent further conflict.
The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs announced that Wang Yi, head of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission of the Communist Party of China and Foreign Minister, will meet with Philippine Foreign Minister Teresa Lazaro during the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Manila from July 21 to 23.
This meeting marks the first encounter between the two foreign ministers since the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Vientiane, Laos, in July 2024.
Philippine Foreign Affairs spokesperson Dominic Imperial stated, "This meeting will discuss not only bilateral relations but also the impact of regional dynamics on ASEAN. We consider it very important and have high expectations." The Chinese Foreign Ministry had previously confirmed Wang's attendance at the China-ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting.
With recent tensions between China and the Philippines on the rise, there is keen interest in what solutions may emerge from this meeting.
Just a day before the talks, on July 20, both nations publicly condemned each other following a clash near the Second Thomas Shoal (known as Ren'ai Jiao in China and Ayungin in the Philippines). The Philippine Coast Guard claimed that a rubber boat carrying eight Chinese coast guard members approached a grounded Philippine vessel to take photos. When the Philippines attempted to drive them away, the Chinese allegedly assaulted Philippine sailors with wooden batons, resulting in one injury and damage to a rubber boat.
Conversely, China accused the Philippines of initiating provocation and aggression. The Chinese coast guard stated, "The Philippines is distorting the facts and slandering China," asserting that they maintained stable control of the situation and responded in a restrained manner. On the same day, the Chinese Foreign Ministry summoned the Philippine ambassador to lodge a strong protest regarding the South China Sea incident.
Recent tensions over the South China Sea have intensified. On July 12, both countries clashed over the 10th anniversary of the Permanent Court of Arbitration's ruling on the South China Sea. The Philippines, alongside the United States, Japan, Australia, and the United Kingdom, issued a joint statement reaffirming the PCA's ruling, declaring China's claims in the South China Sea as baseless. In contrast, China dismissed the PCA ruling as illegal and void, calling it a mere scrap of paper. Additionally, recent claims from Chinese academia asserting that the Philippines' Bataan Peninsula falls within China's sovereignty have drawn strong protests from the Philippines.
Earlier in late May, when Japan and the Philippines began negotiations to delineate the continental shelf boundaries in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) between eastern Taiwan and northern Philippines, China expressed opposition, claiming it could infringe on its interests.
China has been wary of the Philippines' recent strengthening of military and security cooperation with the United States and Japan, viewing it as a move to counter China.
These issues are expected to be central topics during the upcoming foreign ministers' meeting.
Jupeng, a professor of international relations at Nanjing University, noted, "The willingness of the foreign ministers of China and the Philippines to meet is a positive signal, indicating that both sides hope to reduce the risk of conflict through diplomatic channels."
Rai Liang Puk, a senior researcher at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, stated, "During this meeting, China is likely to express concerns about the Philippines strengthening its cooperation with the U.S. and Japan. As the ASEAN chair, it is also crucial for the Philippines to maintain communication with China to achieve results at this year's ASEAN meeting."
However, there are predictions that reaching an agreement on the Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea may be challenging this year. The COC is a joint framework being developed by China and ASEAN to prevent accidental clashes in the South China Sea, and the Philippines has been striving for its conclusion as the ASEAN chair this year.
Rai noted, "Given the Philippines' ongoing deepening of security cooperation with the U.S. and Japan, China's motivation to finalize the COC this year may be limited." He added, "In the short term, managing differences and preventing the escalation of maritime clashes may be a more realistic goal, as both sides may still find it difficult to avoid friction in the South China Sea."
Meanwhile, there are also suggestions that Wang Yi may meet with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Manila. Professor Jupeng remarked, "Both China and the U.S. do not want regional tensions to escalate further, and enhancing diplomatic communication to manage potential conflicts serves the interests of both sides."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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