Interest Rate Hikes Raise Concerns for Vulnerable Borrowers

 
한국은행이 기준금리 인상 기조로 전환한 데 이어 하반기 추가 금리 인상 가능성까지 높아지면서 저소득·저신용 차주를 중심으로 이자 부담이 확대될 것이라는 우려가 커지고 있다. 코로나19 이후 취약 부문의 부실이 충분히 해소되지 않은 상황에서 대출금리 상승이 이어지면 상환 부담이 한층 커질 수 있다는 분석이다.

According to the Bank of Korea, the delinquency rate for household loans rose to 1.00% in the first quarter of this year, up from 0.92% in the fourth quarter of last year. While the overall delinquency rate remains within long-term averages, the central bank has noted signs of deteriorating financial health among vulnerable borrowers.

The proportion of vulnerable borrowers, defined as low-income and low-credit households and self-employed individuals, increased from 6.4% at the end of the third quarter of last year to 6.7% at the end of the first quarter of this year. These borrowers, who typically have low income and credit scores and often hold debts from multiple financial institutions, are expected to be most affected by rising interest rates.

Market analysts believe there is a high likelihood that the Bank of Korea will raise the benchmark interest rate at least once more this year. As the benchmark rate increases, it will eventually be reflected in loan rates, further increasing the repayment burden for vulnerable borrowers.

In fact, rising interest rates directly lead to increased interest burdens for borrowers. According to data submitted by the Bank of Korea to lawmaker Lee Jong-wook of the People Power Party, a 0.25 percentage point increase in mortgage rates is estimated to raise the annual interest burden for all borrowers by approximately 1.8 trillion won. This translates to an additional burden of about 296,000 won per borrower annually. If further rate hikes occur, the interest burden could increase even more.

The burden on vulnerable groups is already evident in statistics. According to the National Data Agency's household trend survey, the average monthly interest cost for all households in the first quarter of this year was 136,515 won, a 6.6% increase from the same period last year. In contrast, the interest costs for the lowest income 20% of households rose by 23.9% during the same period, more than three times the overall average increase. This indicates that the impact of rising interest rates is disproportionately affecting low-income households.

Experts warn that if the tightening of monetary policy continues for an extended period, the repayment capacity of vulnerable borrowers could deteriorate rapidly. If income growth does not keep pace with rising interest burdens, delinquencies may increase, which could also pose risks to the financial sector's stability.

Kim Sang-bong, a professor of economics at Hansung University, stated, "Market interest rates are already at a high level. If the benchmark rate is raised two more times, the repayment burden for vulnerable borrowers could increase sharply."