The brokerage estimated HMM’s second-quarter revenue at 3.28 trillion won ($2.21 billion), up 25 percent from a year earlier, and operating profit at 420.6 billion won, up 80.4 percent. The estimate is also higher than the market consensus of 346.3 billion won in operating profit.
“Container freight rates rose more than expected in the second quarter,” Shinhan analyst Choi Min-ki said in the report.
Shinhan said the average Shanghai Containerized Freight Index reached 2,337 points in the quarter, up 42 percent from a year earlier, while the China Containerized Freight Index rose 16 percent to 1,350 points.
The increase was driven largely by stronger cargo demand ahead of U.S. tariff changes in July, as companies rushed to ship inventories before the new measures took effect. Improved market conditions on routes to the Americas, which account for about one-third of HMM’s cargo volume, also supported earnings, the report said.
Shinhan said HMM’s bulk business also remained solid, with both dry bulk and tanker markets showing firm conditions. Although average bunker fuel prices rose 44 percent, the brokerage said higher freight rates likely offset the added fuel burden.
The brokerage raised its 2026 earnings forecast for HMM, projecting annual revenue of 12.81 trillion won, up 17.6 percent from a year earlier, and operating profit of 1.75 trillion won, up 19.8 percent. The new operating profit estimate is 75.9 percent higher than Shinhan’s previous forecast.
Shinhan said the impact of higher container shipping rates could be reflected more strongly in the third quarter than in the second quarter, given the usual one- to one-and-a-half-month lag between market freight rates and revenue recognition.
However, the report said spot freight rates are likely to show a “high first half, low second half” pattern, as peak-season cargo demand was pulled forward earlier than usual.
Some European shipping companies have shown signs of resuming services through the Suez Canal, but Shinhan said a full-scale return to the route could be delayed following renewed blockade threats by Yemen’s Houthi rebels.
Despite the improved earnings outlook, Shinhan maintained its Neutral rating on HMM without presenting a target price. The brokerage said the stock has remained sluggish due to concerns over excess container ship supply from accumulated new vessel orders.
The report said HMM is focusing its cash holdings on fleet investment rather than one-off shareholder returns, while seeking to improve earnings stability by expanding the share of long-term contracts.
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