Lee Jae-yong, chairman of Samsung Electronics, Chey Tae-won, chairman of SK Group, and Lee Hae-jin, chairman of Naver, are set to meet with Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, in the U.S. This meeting has sparked interest in whether it could trigger a rebound for domestic artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, which have recently plummeted. Concerns over a peak in AI investment have led to declines of 30% to 40% in the stock prices of Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Naver compared to their 52-week highs, although analysts suggest that the recent corrections may be excessive.
According to the financial investment industry on July 22, the meeting is expected to take place in a roundtable format near Silicon Valley this week. The meeting is likely to occur on July 24, with the potential attendance of Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, and Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, also being discussed.
This meeting is noteworthy as it comes amid significant investor anxiety regarding a slowdown in AI investments, which has severely dampened market sentiment.
On July 21, Samsung Electronics closed at 259,000 won, marking a 30.8% drop from its 52-week high of 374,500 won. SK Hynix also saw a decline of 38.5%, falling from its 52-week high of 2,987,000 won to 1,836,000 won. Naver's stock price dropped to 193,000 won, down 36.5% from its 52-week high of 304,000 won.
Foreign capital outflows have continued, with foreign investors selling 1.49 trillion won worth of Samsung Electronics and 2.29 trillion won worth of SK Hynix from June 19 to July 21, totaling approximately 3.78 trillion won in sales. In contrast, Naver saw a net purchase of 180.9 billion won during the same period.
The recent sharp declines are attributed to concerns that the AI investment cycle may have peaked. Fears regarding the substantial capital expenditures of global tech giants and the potential for AI technology efficiency to lead to a slowdown in demand for GPUs and memory have weighed heavily on investor sentiment.
However, analysts maintain that the fundamentals of AI investment and the memory market remain robust despite the stock price declines. Daishin Securities reported that the semiconductor market is experiencing an 'irrational stock price drop.' They forecast that prices for general DRAM and NAND will rise by mid-20% and mid-10% respectively in the third quarter, indicating continued strength in memory prices due to supply shortages.
Concerns over a slowdown in AI investment may also be overstated. KB Securities estimates that AI investments by Google and Meta will reach 270 trillion won and 220 trillion won, respectively, this year. They argue that improvements in AI model efficiency do not necessarily lead to reduced investment; rather, they could expand overall memory demand through lower costs and increased usage.
The earnings expectations for semiconductor companies remain strong. The consensus for Samsung Electronics' operating profit in the third quarter has been revised upward by 7.4% compared to a month ago, while SK Hynix's has increased by 4.4%. Despite stock prices falling over 30% from their peaks, earnings forecasts have actually improved.
Market participants are keenly watching for messages confirming the sustainability of AI investments during this meeting. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix play a crucial role in the global AI supply chain, particularly in high-performance memory such as HBM, while Naver is also expanding its AI infrastructure business.
The securities industry suggests that if global AI companies announce plans for increased investment or further collaboration, it could help restore investor sentiment that has been negatively impacted by fears of a peak in AI investment. Given the solid earnings outlook and memory market conditions, this meeting could be a pivotal factor in addressing market skepticism regarding the sustainability of AI investments.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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