President Donald Trump has indicated that the United States will soon launch a strong strike against Iran's underground nuclear facility known as 'Gokgyeongisan.' However, analysts suggest that the facility's deep construction within a mountain may make it difficult to completely destroy, even with the U.S. military's most powerful conventional bunker buster.
According to reports from AP and CNN on July 22, Gokgyeongisan is located about 2 kilometers from Iran's Natanz nuclear facility.
Iran announced plans to build the facility in the mountains as a replacement after the destruction of its centrifuge assembly plant in Natanz in 2020. However, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has not been able to verify the facility's internal operations, leaving its exact purpose unclear. The U.S. and Israel suspect that Iran may be using the site for its nuclear program.
If the U.S. military proceeds with an attack, there is speculation that it may deploy the massive GBU-57 penetrating bomb, which was used in last year's strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. At that time, the U.S. dropped 14 GBU-57 bombs on the Fordow and Natanz sites using B-2 stealth bombers.
However, it is believed that the core facilities at Gokgyeongisan may be located even deeper than those at Fordow. The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) estimates that the facility is built at least 100 meters underground. While the exact penetration capability of the GBU-57 is not publicly disclosed, there are doubts about its ability to directly destroy the core facilities at Gokgyeongisan.
James Acton, co-director of the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, stated, "While a bunker buster attack could collapse the tunnel entrance, it would be difficult to bring down the core facilities deep underground."
Instead, there are discussions about focusing attacks on tunnel entrances, ventilation shafts, and power supply facilities to disrupt operations. ISIS believes that since the internal facilities at Gokgyeongisan require power, ventilation, heating, cooling, and the movement of personnel and materials, exposed facilities on the surface could be targeted.
However, this approach may only prevent access and operations without destroying the underground facility itself. If the entrances are repaired or alternative routes are established, the facility could be used again.
ISIS suggests that to ensure the facility's complete destruction, ground operations involving troops may be more effective than airstrikes. However, Gokgyeongisan is located deep within Iranian territory, posing significant risks of exposure to missile and drone attacks during the entry and exit of special forces.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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