The development of a next-generation fighter jet, jointly pursued by Japan, the United Kingdom, and Italy, is set to advance significantly. Following the completion of the basic design evaluation, the project is moving into the detailed design phase, with Canada participating for the first time as an observer.
In 2022, Japan, the UK, and Italy merged their individual next-generation fighter projects to launch the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP). The plan aims to develop a new aircraft to replace Japan's F-2, which is set to retire in the mid-2030s, as well as the Eurofighter Typhoon used by the UK and Italy, with deployment expected to begin in 2035. The need to jointly address changes in the security environment in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, particularly with the increasing stealth capabilities of China and Russia, has driven the initiative.
The design and development of the aircraft will be handled by BAE Systems from the UK, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries from Japan, and Leonardo from Italy, through a joint venture called Edgewing. Edgewing has signed a development contract worth £4.6 billion (approximately $5.8 billion) with an international agency established by the three governments. Marco Zoff, CEO of Edgewing, stated at the UK’s Farnborough Airshow that the concept evaluation is nearing completion before entering the detailed design phase, and each country will establish development bases, with Japan's base located in Nagoya.
This sixth-generation aircraft will enhance the capabilities of fifth-generation fighters with advanced stealth features. Its core function will be to integrate and control individual aircraft, drones, unmanned combat vehicles, satellites, naval vessels, and ground forces into a single network. By analyzing data collected from various platforms using artificial intelligence (AI), it will function as an aerial command center capable of early detection and response to enemy attacks. Andrew Howard, interim manager responsible for the electronic technology of GCAP, noted, "We will process large amounts of data collected from each drone and other systems."
Canada became the first observer nation of GCAP following a meeting with defense ministers from Japan, the UK, and Italy on July 21 in London. According to the Yomiuri Shimbun, the four nations described this as a "new phase" for GCAP in a joint statement, emphasizing that it is an important step toward strengthening cooperation among like-minded partners. Canada will not bear any costs, and its direct involvement in development and manufacturing has yet to be determined. However, it will receive information regarding the aircraft's specific capabilities and the participation of its domestic companies to assess the feasibility of its involvement. After the meeting, Japan's Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi expressed his pleasure at welcoming Canada, which connects the Pacific and Atlantic, amid military exercises conducted by both China and Russia around Japan.
Canada's participation signifies more than just an increase in potential partner nations. As the number of countries involved and operational units grows, field data will accumulate, which can be utilized for AI software and improvements in fighter performance. Kenji Minemura, a senior researcher at Canon Global Strategic Research Institute, stated, "In next-generation aircraft, software centered around AI will be a competitive axis, and we need to gather more field data." The three nations aim to replace a total of 300 existing fighters. If additional countries join, production volumes will increase, reducing the per-unit production costs and the development cost burden on participating nations, according to the Asahi Shimbun. The three countries have been exploring participation from Australia and Singapore, while Sweden and Poland have also shown interest.
Setbacks in the sixth-generation fighter competition may benefit GCAP. The Future Combat Air System (FCAS), pursued by France, Germany, and Spain since 2017, was suspended last month due to disagreements over operational concepts and conflicts among participating companies. The United States is also independently developing the Air Force's F-47 and the Navy's F/A-XX. However, Tony Osborne of Aviation Week noted, "The U.S. is reluctant to export sixth-generation fighters, which are advanced technology packages," adding that currently, GCAP is the only option for Western nations to acquire such aircraft. As uncertainties surrounding the foreign policy of the Trump administration have increased, more countries are feeling the burden of relying on the U.S. for core combat systems.
While the number of available sixth-generation fighters is limited, the related market is expected to expand. Indian research firm Fortune Business Insights predicts that the global fighter jet market will grow by 60% to $126.5 billion (approximately 185 trillion won) by 2034, when sixth-generation fighter production is expected to ramp up.
A variable in this scenario is the financial situation in the UK. The previous Starmer government included £8.6 billion for next-generation fighter development in its defense investment plan, but the announcement has been delayed due to difficulties in internal coordination. According to the Yomiuri, a Japanese government official expressed concern that "the UK's financial instability could hinder development."
The expansion of participating countries could also delay development. Following the suspension of FCAS, there are discussions about Germany seeking to join GCAP, but a Japanese defense ministry official believes Germany will not settle for simple procurement and will likely seek to participate in development. If it takes time to reconcile requirements and interests, the development schedule could be pushed back. Japan's urgency in adhering to the timeline is partly due to China's development of next-generation fighters. If the deployment of GCAP is delayed beyond the planned retirement of the F-2 in 2035, it could create a gap in Japan's air defense capabilities. A Japanese defense ministry official stated, "Delays are inevitable in development plans, but we want to make up for it to avoid gaps in Japan's air defense capabilities."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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