Support for the Takaiichi Cabinet has dropped by more than 10 percentage points in a month, falling below 50%. For the first time, responses from those without party affiliation indicating they do not support the Cabinet outnumbered those who do. The decline in support appears to be influenced by dissatisfaction with explanations regarding key policies, such as the amendment of the royal family law, and concerns over inflation measures.
In a nationwide survey conducted by the Yomiuri Shimbun from July 24 to 26, the Takaiichi Cabinet's approval rating was recorded at 57%, a 12-point drop from June, marking the lowest level since the Cabinet's inception in October of last year. Conversely, the percentage of respondents who do not support the Cabinet rose from 21% to 34%, an increase of 13 points.
Similarly, a survey by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) and TV Tokyo during the same period showed a 10-point decline in support to 58%. The percentage of those who do not support the Cabinet increased by 10 points to 37%. This was the first time the approval rating fell below 60% since the Cabinet was formed.
Both surveys highlighted a significant shift among those without party affiliation. In the Yomiuri survey, support among this group dropped from 54% to 41%, while the percentage of those who do not support the Cabinet surged from 30% to 47%, surpassing those who do support it. The Nikkei survey also showed a decline in support from 52% to 36%, with those indicating they do not support the Cabinet rising from 36% to 51%.
Support declined across all demographics. In the Yomiuri survey, support among women fell from 65% to 51%, while support among men dropped from 73% to 63%. By age group, support among those aged 18-39 decreased from 71% to 64%, among those aged 40-59 from 72% to 58%, and among those aged 60 and older from 66% to 52%.
The Yomiuri Shimbun identified a lack of adequate explanations regarding key legislation and policies, including the royal family law, as a major factor in the decline in support. A significant 62% of respondents felt that Prime Minister Takaiichi was not providing sufficient explanations, more than double the 29% who believed he was. In the Nikkei survey, 49% of respondents evaluated the proposed amendment positively, while 41% did not. Notably, among those without party affiliation, 46% did not evaluate the amendment positively, compared to 39% who did.
There was overwhelming support for allowing a female emperor in the proposed amendment to the royal family law. In the Yomiuri survey, 85% supported the idea, while only 8% opposed it. The Nikkei survey also found that 59% believed both a female emperor and a female line of succession should be recognized, while 25% supported recognizing a female emperor but not a female line of succession. Combined, this indicates that 84% are in favor of allowing a female emperor.
Conversely, opinions were divided on the proposal to accept male heirs from former royal families who left the royal family after World War II. In the Yomiuri survey, 45% viewed this positively, while 40% viewed it negatively. Regarding the proposal to grant succession rights to the sons of these adopted males, the results varied. The Yomiuri survey showed 52% in favor, while the Nikkei survey indicated 42% found it appropriate, and 45% did not.
The Yomiuri Shimbun analyzed that the rigid operation of the National Diet has also contributed to the loss of support. During the legislative process for the proposed secondary capital plan, the ruling party proceeded with deliberations in the House of Representatives at one point without the participation of the opposition. In a survey conducted by the Yomiuri in February, 88% of respondents identified inflation measures as the top priority for the Takaiichi Cabinet, while only 38% prioritized the secondary capital plan.
Concerns about inflation have become more pronounced. The percentage of respondents dissatisfied with the government's inflation measures rose by 15 points to 71% compared to June, while those who viewed the measures positively fell from 35% to 21%. Among supporters of the Takaiichi Cabinet, negative evaluations exceeded half at 56%, and among Liberal Democratic Party supporters, it reached 50%.
Opinions were evenly split regarding the proposed reduction of the consumption tax on food products. This plan aims to lower the consumption tax rate on food to 1% for two years and provide cash payments equivalent to 1% of the consumption tax to low- and middle-income households, effectively eliminating their tax burden. In the Yomiuri survey, 48% supported the proposal, while 41% opposed it. The Nikkei survey showed similar results, with 48% in favor and 44% against. The proposed implementation date is set for April 2027, with cash payments being considered for the fall of the same year.
Prime Minister Takaiichi has stated that a decision on the tax reduction policy will be made by early August. A senior government official emphasized the need to ensure the implementation of the tax reduction, stating, "We will make this summer a 'season of inflation measures.'" However, the Yomiuri noted that the tax reduction could lead to further depreciation of the yen and rising interest rates, making it difficult to predict its impact on support recovery.
Meanwhile, on July 27, during a meeting of the House of Representatives Budget Committee, Prime Minister Takaiichi commented on the reasons for the sharp decline in support, saying, "It is difficult for me to analyze," and noted that he would use the survey results as a reference to gauge public sentiment. In response to calls for the establishment of a new expert committee to discuss remaining succession issues, including a female emperor and a female line of succession, he stated, "The government has no immediate plans to establish one," and emphasized the need to prepare for the implementation of the amended royal family law.
Despite the decline, the Takaiichi Cabinet's approval rating remains in the high 50s. However, indicators reflecting the stability of the administration have also shown signs of instability. The Yomiuri survey indicated that support for the Liberal Democratic Party fell from 39% to 31%, a drop of 8 points. The Yomiuri suggested that growing dissatisfaction within the party regarding governance could lead to changes in the internal atmosphere if the decline in support continues.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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