Iran's new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public for five months, prompting the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Israeli intelligence agency Mossad to intensify efforts to determine his whereabouts and survival.
According to the British daily The Times on July 27, tracking Mojtaba's location has become a top priority for U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies.
Mojtaba was appointed Supreme Leader on March 8, following the death of his father, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, in an airstrike on February 28. However, he has not appeared in public or released any audio messages since then, and he did not attend his father's funeral.
The Times reported that the difficulty in tracking Mojtaba stems from his complete isolation from external contact. He is said to have left no electronic traces, avoiding the use of mobile phones or laptops.
The Times speculated that Mojtaba may be hiding in a underground bunker after sustaining significant facial injuries from the airstrike on February 28. It is believed he is avoiding detection by U.S. reconnaissance satellites by remaining underground. While Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has claimed to have met him, the actual occurrence of such a meeting has not been confirmed.
In the past, the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) and Israel's Unit 8200 hacked Tehran's closed-circuit television to track Ali Khamenei's movements. However, with Mojtaba cutting off electronic device usage, locating him through cyber surveillance has become challenging.
As a result, the CIA and Mossad are relying more on human intelligence (HUMINT) rather than electronic surveillance. Their efforts focus on confirming Mojtaba's survival and narrowing down potential hiding places, including underground tunnels in Tehran and military bunkers near the religious city of Qom.
Former Mossad chief Ramy Igra told The Times, "Even if Mojtaba does not use a phone, if he is alive, he will communicate through small pieces of paper, and there will be multiple layers of couriers to deliver messages." He explained that, similar to how Osama bin Laden's couriers provided clues for CIA tracking, Mossad is also focusing on identifying individuals who communicate with Mojtaba.
However, Igra noted that verification of Mojtaba's associates within Iran is extremely strict, suggesting that only two or three people within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may know how to contact him, making tracking very difficult.
The possibility of using a double is also considered a variable. Abner Abraham, a former Mossad colonel, stated, "Even the personnel preparing Mojtaba's meals may not know if the food is actually delivered to the Supreme Leader. Even if they believe they are serving him, it is possible that it is a double."
Not releasing audio messages is also seen as a measure to avoid revealing his location. Abraham explained that information about the type of recording device or location could be extracted from audio files.
The Times noted that even if U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies manage to locate Mojtaba, they may face a strategic dilemma regarding whether to eliminate him.
A former high-ranking U.S. intelligence official stated, "If there is no strong conviction that a leader will emerge to lead Iran toward a democratic future, we must consider whether removing the current leader is truly beneficial."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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