As the Democratic Party prepares for its convention on August 17, candidate Jung Cheong-rae has emerged with a significant lead in first-choice votes, according to a recent poll. However, analysts caution that the outcome remains uncertain due to the preference voting system that will be used if no candidate secures a majority in the first round.
On July 30, Media Tomato released results from a survey conducted from July 27 to 28, which included responses from 1,033 individuals aged 18 and older nationwide. The poll indicated that 36.9% of respondents would choose Jung as their first choice. Kim Min-seok followed with 28.0%, while Song Young-gil garnered 9.2%. Additionally, 21.8% of participants indicated they had no preferred candidate, and 4.1% were unsure.
Among supporters of the Democratic Party, Kim Min-seok led with 44.9%, within the margin of error, while Jung received 38.9% and Song 11.2%.
The upcoming convention will combine votes from delegates and party members, accounting for 70%, with public opinion polls making up the remaining 30%. The preference voting system is expected to play a crucial role. This system allows voters who selected a third-choice candidate to have their second-choice votes redistributed proportionally to the final two candidates. Some analysts suggest that Kim may benefit from votes that would otherwise go to Song, who is aligned with the same faction.
The survey was conducted using an automated response system, achieving a response rate of 1.7%. The margin of error is ±3.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, please refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.
* This article has been translated by AI.
Copyright ⓒ Aju Press All rights reserved.