A hypothesis has emerged suggesting that China could bomb all of Taiwan's ports with missiles as part of its efforts to unify the island.
According to an opinion piece published on August 5 in the U.S. foreign affairs journal Foreign Affairs, this military option has been analyzed, although it has not been thoroughly examined.
The article outlines three main military options that have been discussed regarding China's approach to Taiwan: a full-scale invasion, targeting key facilities in Taiwan, and a maritime blockade. Each of these options presents significant challenges for China. A full-scale invasion would require a massive troop deployment and could result in substantial casualties, including civilian losses in Taiwan. Striking key facilities also carries the risk of international condemnation and civilian harm. A maritime blockade would necessitate threatening foreign vessels heading to Taiwan, increasing the likelihood of military intervention from the international community, including the United States.
The opinion piece explains that a new, lower-risk approach known as 'firepower blockade' is emerging as a potential option. This strategy involves the Chinese military precisely targeting only Taiwan's port facilities to disrupt trade and logistics. Instead of attacking entire cities or directly blocking foreign vessels, this strategy aims to sever the supply chain by targeting the ports that are vital to Taiwan's economy.
Since the firepower blockade focuses on specific port facilities, it reduces the risk of direct confrontation between the Chinese military and Taiwan. Additionally, as it does not require stopping or attacking foreign vessels, it weakens the justification for military intervention by other countries, such as the United States and Japan. A simulation conducted by a research team suggests that China could incapacitate Taiwan's port functions using fewer than 500 ballistic missiles over approximately 100 days. In this scenario, Taiwan's import levels could plummet to about 15% of normal levels. Given that Taiwan relies heavily on foreign trade for energy, food, and industrial raw materials, this could lead to a significant economic shock.
In response to China's firepower blockade, Taiwan may enhance its missile defense systems; however, experts predict that this may not be sufficient given China's vast missile arsenal. Even if Taiwan were to retaliate against Chinese ports, the extensive territory of China would limit the effectiveness of such retaliation.
The opinion piece notes that while the firepower blockade may seem appealing to China, it is not a perfect solution. Historically, countries under blockade have adapted over time by finding new trade routes and utilizing domestic resources. Furthermore, in modern society, economic hardship does not necessarily lead to political surrender. In fact, external aggression could strengthen anti-China sentiment within Taiwanese society and bolster resistance. Nevertheless, experts believe that if the Chinese leadership considers military action, the firepower blockade will remain an attractive option.
* This article has been translated by AI.
Copyright ⓒ Aju Press All rights reserved.