U.S. intelligence agencies have analyzed that Russian President Vladimir Putin may provoke NATO member countries in the coming years to test the alliance's collective defense capabilities, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal on August 6, citing sources.
The report indicates that U.S. intelligence believes that while Putin had not previously considered provoking NATO member states amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, the situation has changed since early this year. With the war in Ukraine dragging on for four and a half years and increasing pressure on Putin to achieve a victory, there is a possibility he may engage in provocative actions against NATO members.
U.S. intelligence has outlined potential scenarios, including cyberattacks against NATO countries, the occupation of territory by unmarked armed forces, and limited invasions of NATO's eastern regions, predicting that such events could occur between this fall and 2029. While the most extreme scenario of a limited invasion is considered unlikely due to its potential to trigger NATO's Article 5, the likelihood of cyberattacks and hybrid attacks combining military and non-military means is relatively high, as the activation of Article 5 in these cases remains uncertain.
NATO's Article 5 stipulates that an armed attack against one member is considered an attack against all, prompting a collective response. In fact, the U.S. and Europe have noted an increase in Russia's probing actions against NATO, such as a missile launched by Russia towards Ukraine that reached Poland last month and a Russian drone that crashed into an apartment building in Romania in May. Additionally, Lithuania's Defense Minister Roberta Kumpis predicted in a local interview that Russia could use drones from Ukraine to provoke NATO countries in the Baltic region.
Heather Conley, a senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, stated, "How NATO responds to attacks that do not meet the threshold for Article 5 has always been a challenge for the alliance. Until now, NATO allies have preferred to avoid escalation." She cited Estonia's choice to manage a crisis bilaterally when Russia launched a cyberattack against it in 2007 as an example.
Moreover, the report raises concerns as it comes amid news that the U.S. is facing shortages of key weapons, including missiles, due to the prolonged conflict in Iran. Observers suggest that the U.S. may struggle to respond effectively to hostile nations like China and Russia due to these missile shortages. Tom Karako, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, emphasized that precision-strike missiles launched from the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), and Stinger missiles are crucial for repelling Russian military conflicts.
Meanwhile, NATO spokesperson Martin O'Donnell stated, "We are always reviewing various scenarios and preparing for them. NATO is monitoring the situation and is ready to engage in deterrence and defense if necessary."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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