Both the United States and Russia, boasting the world's top military powers, are grappling with a common issue: a shortage of missiles. Despite showcasing overwhelming military strength since the Cold War, these two superpowers are now concerned about their ability to conduct warfare due to insufficient missile supplies, highlighting the critical importance of industrial production capacity in modern conflicts.
On August 6, U.S. President Donald Trump emphasized that while the country's weapon stockpiles are generally sufficient, he acknowledged that "some weapons are a bit tight" in supply. The U.S. has reportedly significantly depleted its stock of key interceptors, including Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot and THAAD missile defense systems, due to extensive use in the wars in Iraq and support for Ukraine. However, the U.S. defense industrial base has shrunk considerably since the Cold War, making it challenging to rapidly increase weapon stockpiles.
Russia's situation is similarly dire. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) has analyzed that Ukraine's use of inexpensive long-range drones to continuously attack Russian rear positions has led to a significant depletion of Russia's air defense missiles, with production unable to keep pace with consumption. While it takes months to produce interceptors costing millions of dollars, drones can be mass-produced at a fraction of the cost. Despite the advent of advanced weaponry, warfare remains rooted in the age-old concept of attrition.
In response to its production shortfalls, Russia has begun to seek external assistance. North Korea has reportedly been supplying short-range ballistic missiles to Russia and has recently sent missile units and operational personnel. Ukraine claims that Russia has received over 150 ballistic missiles from North Korea, indicating that military cooperation between the two countries is evolving beyond mere arms trading to joint operational stages. A military power unable to produce its own missiles is now relying on foreign supply chains.
This scenario is not historically unprecedented. The outcome of World War II was determined not by advanced weaponry but by production capacity. The U.S. built over 1,000 ships during the war, which enabled it to secure victory against Japan in the Pacific theater.
The Soviet Union's T-34 tank serves as another example. Although Nazi Germany's Panther and Tiger tanks outperformed the T-34 in capability, they could not match its production speed. The Soviet Union simplified the design and reduced processes, significantly lowering production time and costs, ultimately leading to the mass production of tens of thousands of T-34s and securing victory.
Today, this principle remains unchanged. In fact, the emergence of drones and precision-guided munitions has amplified the importance of production capacity. In an era where a single inexpensive drone can draw out a multimillion-dollar interceptor, warfare is shifting from a technological competition to an industrial one. Production lines and supply chains are becoming more critical strategic assets than research and development or the announcement of new weapons.
This has significant implications for South Korea as well. European countries, including Poland, have chosen South Korean weapons such as the K2 tank, K9 self-propelled howitzer, and Chunmoo multiple rocket launcher not solely for their performance but also for South Korea's high manufacturing capability to produce and supply them in large quantities when needed. The competitiveness of the defense industry is increasingly determined by how quickly production can be ramped up in times of war.
As the U.S. worries about missile shortages and Russia turns to North Korean missiles, the current situations of these two military powers underscore that the cornerstone of national security lies not only in the development of cutting-edge weapons but also in maintaining an industrial base and supply chain capable of continuously producing them.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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