Leaders of nations engaged in conflict will face voter judgment this fall. U.S. President Donald Trump, grappling with rising prices due to the war with Iran, Russian President Vladimir Putin, burdened by the prolonged war in Ukraine and fuel shortages, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose political standing is shaken by the war in Gaza and a hardline stance on Iran, are at the forefront.
The Russian State Duma elections are set for September 20, Israel's general elections on October 27, and the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported on the 13th that "the public's anxiety in each country is forcing leaders to focus on domestic issues, making the election outcomes potential variables in the Iran and Ukraine wars."
As a result of the war with Iran, gas prices have surged, creating a 'price backlash' for President Trump. According to averages from various polls compiled by RealClearPolitics, Trump's approval rating has dropped to 39%, the lowest level since he took office.
Trump, engaged in a standoff with Iran, maintains a tough stance regarding the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a stalemate in negotiations. Stabilizing shipping through the Strait could help lower international oil prices and gas costs, but if Trump concedes to Iran, he risks facing criticism both domestically and internationally.
The Republican Party currently controls the presidency and both houses of Congress. However, various polls indicate a competitive race between Republicans and Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections. If the Republicans lose their majority in Congress, it could lead to a significant weakening of Trump's influence and increased congressional oversight of the war with Iran.
In Russia, fuel shortages are hindering Putin's administration. Ukraine continues to target Russian oil facilities with long-range drone strikes, resulting in widespread fuel shortages across the country.
According to the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM), Putin's approval rating in July was 65%, a 10 percentage point drop from the beginning of the year, marking the lowest level since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
While the ruling United Russia party is expected to win in the September elections, the number of seats it secures will be a key indicator of the stability of Putin's regime.
Public fatigue over the prolonged war is growing in Russia. A July survey by the independent Levada Center found that 62% of respondents believe peace negotiations should begin. The Nikkei noted, "With Ukraine refusing any concessions, there is keen interest in whether President Putin will adopt a flexible approach in negotiations."
Israel will hold its general elections in October, the first since the war in Gaza began following the Hamas attack in October 2023.
Currently, Netanyahu is facing political pressure for failing to prevent the Hamas assault and is also on trial for corruption charges.
Netanyahu, who has maintained a hardline stance on the Palestinian issue and Iran, could face calls to resign if his ruling coalition fails to secure a majority in the upcoming elections. The Nikkei stated, "Netanyahu's fate will significantly influence the situation in the Middle East."
* This article has been translated by AI.
Copyright ⓒ Aju Press All rights reserved.