The Democratic Party's convention is just four days away, and political experts generally predict a victory for candidate Kim Min-seok, who is currently leading in the polls. However, they also highlight the declining approval ratings of the Lee Jae-myung administration and the upcoming primary in Honam, the party's traditional stronghold, as critical factors that could influence the outcome, raising the possibility of a strong showing from Jeong Cheong-rae.
Park Sang-byeong, a political commentator, stated in a phone interview with Aju Economy that the convention is likely to reflect the favorable polling results for Kim. He noted, "The results of the polls and the introduction of the preference voting system give Kim an advantageous position," predicting a solid victory for him in Honam.
Lee Jong-hoon, another political analyst, echoed this sentiment, saying, "Due to the nature of the preference voting system, Kim will naturally absorb votes from Song Young-gil, leading to his victory." He explained that the preference voting system allows the second-choice votes of the third-place candidate to be transferred, which will likely widen the gap between Kim and Jeong.
Both analysts pointed to the historically low approval ratings of President Lee, which currently sit at their lowest since he took office, and the fact that Honam voters make up more than a third of the party's total membership as the most significant variables in the race.
Park warned that the current trend of low approval ratings for President Lee could work against Kim, stating, "If this trend continues, public sentiment in Honam could shift towards Jeong. If Jeong loses by a margin of less than 3%, there is a possibility that the outcome could be reversed."
Shin Yul, a professor of political science at Myongji University, predicted that if a specific candidate fails to secure a majority, it would deal a significant blow to the Lee Jae-myung administration. He remarked, "The fact that no candidate surpasses the majority itself is a blow to the administration. This will inevitably amplify the voices of the anti-Lee faction within the party, potentially deepening internal divisions."
When asked about Jeong's chances of winning, Shin said, "If Jeong achieves a decisive victory with a margin of over 5% in the primary in Honam this weekend, there is a possibility of a turnaround." He added, "The party members in Honam do not wish for this administration to fail, so votes will naturally gravitate towards Kim."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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