Russia conducted military drills last month in Kaliningrad, an exclave on the Baltic Sea. Reports suggest that the country may mobilize 300,000 troops in September.
The Wall Street Journal reported on August 23 that Russian military officers moved from the western city of St. Petersburg to Kaliningrad to assess the mobilization readiness of local residents. These officers reviewed procedures for mobilizing Kaliningrad residents, including accommodations, food, and weapon supplies.
Officials indicated that these drills are part of nationwide training in preparation for a potential mobilization order. However, sources from the Kremlin stated that no decision has been made regarding a mobilization order, and it is unlikely to be determined before the general elections at the end of September.
Despite this, Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown a willingness to take significant losses in eastern Ukraine to secure control over the Donbas region, raising speculation about the possibility of a mobilization order among Western media. According to CNN, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on August 23 that Russia aims to regain territory in Ukraine by the end of the year, even at the cost of substantial troop losses. He claimed that Russia has lost 267,000 troops since the war began, with 155,000 of those being fatalities.
The Wall Street Journal also noted that the Russian military has struggled to recruit new personnel to replace those killed or injured in recent months. Additionally, Ukrainian drone attacks have increased casualties among Russian forces, contributing to concerns among U.S. and European officials about the likelihood of a large-scale mobilization order.
Western intelligence officials are particularly focused on the Suwalki Gap, a 100-kilometer stretch of land connecting Lithuania and Poland, which links Kaliningrad to Belarus. If Russia were to occupy this area, it would secure a supply route between Kaliningrad and Belarus, allowing troops mobilized from Kaliningrad to be deployed to Ukraine via Belarus.
The last mobilization order in Russia was issued in September 2022, prompting many men to flee the country to avoid conscription. Reports indicated that Russian men began planning overseas trips or purchasing homes in anticipation of a potential mobilization. Radio Free Europe reported an increase in Russian arrivals in Armenia, which has accepted many Russians seeking to evade conscription since 2022-2023.
In response, Vasily Nebenzya, Russia's ambassador to the UN, stated that there are currently no plans for a large-scale mobilization order after the September elections. Nebenzya emphasized, "As I have stated several times, we do not need a large-scale mobilization order at this time. To my knowledge, there are no plans or expectations for one."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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