KOSPI is expected to take a breather ahead of major events, including the Jackson Hole meeting and NVIDIA's earnings report. Despite a rise in the U.S. stock market, semiconductor stocks showed weakness, and KOSPI 200 night futures also declined, suggesting a weak start for the domestic market. However, analysts believe that the results of key events this week could lead to a renewed attempt to breach the 7000 mark, despite mixed stock movements from Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix regarding shareholder return policies.
According to NextTrade, as of 8:25 a.m. on the 24th, Samsung Electronics was down 3.20% at 272,500 won, while SK Hynix rose 3.01% to 1,782,000 won. Other Samsung Group stocks, such as Samsung Life (-3.50%) and Samsung C&T (-3.67%), also showed weakness, while LG Energy Solution (1.60%), Hyundai Motor (0.84%), and Samsung Electro-Mechanics (0.76%) experienced gains.
On August 21, the New York stock market saw a collective rise due to an influx of bargain hunters. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.98%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.43%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.44%.
However, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which is closely linked to domestic semiconductor stocks, fell by 0.51%. NVIDIA, ahead of its earnings announcement, also closed down 0.98% at $214.72. KOSPI 200 night futures dropped by 2.29%, and the MSCI Korea Index ETF only rose by 0.10%, indicating no strong signals for a robust start to the domestic market.
Analysts predict that KOSPI will fluctuate between 6500 and 7500 points this week, with a potential attempt to break through the 7000 mark. Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, identified key variables for the stock market this week as the Jackson Hole meeting, U.S. long-term interest rates, July personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation, the Bank of Korea's monetary policy committee, NVIDIA's earnings, and changes in supply and demand following Samsung Electronics' shareholder return.
The Jackson Hole meeting, scheduled for later this week, is seen as a major variable. With the likelihood of interest rates being held steady at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, analysts emphasize the importance of whether Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will provide signals to calm the recently surging yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds. If the upward trend in U.S. long-term interest rates eases, it could alleviate some macroeconomic uncertainties that are hindering KOSPI's stability at the 7000 level.
Additionally, NVIDIA's earnings report, scheduled for August 26, will be crucial in determining how closely it aligns with market expectations. The sustainability of high gross margins and any comments regarding HBM supply shortages are also expected to be significant factors influencing domestic semiconductor stocks and the overall market direction.
Han Ji-young noted, "This week is a super week with major events like the Jackson Hole meeting and NVIDIA's earnings report. The market is likely to see active maneuvering as it processes these events. It is also important to note that following SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics has announced a large-scale shareholder return, which is strengthening the downward rigidity of supply and demand in the overall domestic market centered on leading stocks."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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