Amid stalled negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, the United States has announced an unprecedented economic and financial offensive against Iran. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant warned of an 'economic D-Day' aimed at fully isolating Iran's economy, stating that countries providing financial, oil, or transportation support to Iran will face significant economic consequences. In response, Iran has threatened to consider any nation that joins or supports the U.S. economic war as engaging in hostile acts, potentially blocking oil exports from the Gulf region altogether.
In a commentary published in the Financial Times on August 23, Besant stated, "The economic D-Day will begin at dawn," emphasizing that it will be the strongest financial offensive ever mobilized against adversaries. According to CNBC, Besant is set to hold a press conference on August 24 at 2 p.m. Eastern Time (3 a.m. August 25 Korean time) to announce what he described as "the harshest sanctions in history" against Iran.
Besant claimed that Iran's military capabilities and nuclear program have been significantly weakened due to military pressure from President Donald Trump and U.S. forces, and that it is now time to maximize economic and financial pressure on Iran. He highlighted that the core of this strategy is to achieve Iran's financial and economic isolation, which would reduce the need for U.S. military intervention while expanding the freedom of allied nations. He also warned of secondary sanctions against countries providing economic support to Iran. Previously, President Trump had cautioned that financial institutions, businesses, airports, and government agencies providing any form of 'lifeline' to Iran would incur substantial economic costs.
In response to U.S. pressure, Iran is poised to use oil as a weapon. Iran has already effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz and is signaling that it may also shut down other major oil export routes in the Middle East. Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated on social media platform X that "if the economic war continues, not a single drop of oil will be exported from the Strait of Hormuz or anywhere else in the Persian Gulf." He also warned that actions by countries participating in or supporting the U.S. economic war would be considered acts of 'war' against Iran. In a previous interview with state media, Rezaei indicated that if the U.S. takes further action, Iran would retaliate on a "massive scale," suggesting the possibility of attacks on oil export routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's threats pose a dilemma for President Trump. If the U.S. engages in an economic war targeting Iran's oil exports, there is a risk that Iran could actually threaten oil supplies in the Gulf region, leading to a spike in international oil prices. This is particularly concerning as the U.S. has already begun imposing a 50% tariff on Canadian products, and a rise in oil prices could exacerbate inflation, potentially becoming a critical issue for the Trump administration with midterm elections less than three months away. Additionally, the success of sanctions relies heavily on the participation of neighboring countries, and signals from key pro-Iran nations like China and Russia indicate they will not join the U.S. sanctions, adding to the pressure on the U.S.
However, the situation is not entirely favorable for Iran either. Iran has struggled with oil exports under U.S.-led economic sanctions, facing skyrocketing prices and shortages of essential goods, leading to a severely weakened economy. Mahdi Godzi, a researcher at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, stated, "As long as Iran does not reach an agreement with the U.S., the war will continue, which will have a greater impact on Iran than on the regional or global economy," according to the New York Times (NYT).
In this context, efforts to seek a diplomatic solution are ongoing. General Asim Munir, the Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan, who has played a key mediating role in the ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, is set to visit Tehran on August 24. Munir was instrumental in the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the U.S. and Iran in June and has communicated directly with President Trump.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has not completely ruled out the possibility of negotiations. He emphasized that the MOU signed with the U.S. in June represents the best agreement to end the war, noting that attracting foreign investment is difficult in the current state of 'neither war nor peace.' He previously stated, "It is better to end the war now that we have strength and dignity."
As the U.S. and Iran move toward economic warfare instead of military conflict, August 24 is expected to be a pivotal date for the future dynamics between the two nations and the broader Middle East.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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