The ongoing war in Iran has caused a surge in oil and fertilizer prices, plunging U.S. farmers into their worst crisis in 40 years. With already low grain prices, a decline in agricultural exports to China, and adverse weather conditions, the financial strain on farmers—who are a key support base for President Donald Trump—is intensifying. This situation raises concerns about potential voter discontent in the traditionally Republican Midwest ahead of the November midterm elections.
According to a report by the Financial Times on August 24, the price of 11-52-0 phosphate fertilizer, used for corn planting, has risen from $470 per ton a decade ago to $900 today. Additionally, the average price of diesel fuel used in agricultural equipment has skyrocketed from $3.81 per gallon before the Iran conflict to $5.45 now.
This increase in costs is compounding the financial burdens already faced by U.S. farmers, who have struggled with low grain prices for several years. Furthermore, the trade war initiated by Trump after taking office last year has severely impacted agricultural exports, particularly soybean shipments to China. Weather anomalies, including droughts and heavy rains in key corn-growing regions, have also dealt additional blows to farmers.
According to Farm Bureau economist Pea Pharr, losses for U.S. corn producers are projected to reach $131 per acre this year, with expectations of rising to $167 per acre next year. Soybean farmers are expected to incur losses of $80 per acre this year, increasing to $138 next year. Pharr also predicts that major crops in the U.S. will see negative returns for six consecutive years.
John Hansen, president of the Nebraska Farmers Union, described the current situation as the worst agricultural recession since the 1980s. Pam Johnson, former president of the U.S. Corn Growers Association, stated, "The war has created tremendous uncertainty for our farmers," adding that they are unlikely to see any profits over the next two years.
Trump and Republicans Face Challenges Ahead of Midterms
As the situation for U.S. farmers worsens, President Trump and the Republican Party are facing mounting pressure ahead of the midterm elections in early November. A recent Financial Times survey indicated that over 53% of registered voters believe their financial situation has deteriorated since Trump took office in January last year, posing a significant challenge for the GOP. Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) criticized the party, stating, "With only 71 days until the midterms, we have not been able to deliver a positive message to farmers. We have been struggling since last year's 'Day of Liberation.'"
Earlier in June, Trump assured farmers, "I will never let you down," while requesting an additional $11 billion in emergency aid from Congress. However, the Financial Times noted that this amount is insufficient to compensate for the losses farmers are experiencing. Additionally, last week, Trump announced a temporary exemption from tariffs on up to 300,000 tons of ground beef to address rising food prices, which has further fueled farmers' anger.
As discontent among U.S. farmers grows, there are expectations for a stronger Democratic showing in the Midwest, a region where the GOP has traditionally held sway. The Times reported that Democrats may have a chance for a surprise victory in the Iowa Senate race, noting that while farmers once supported Trump, they are now increasingly frustrated with his administration.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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