KOSPI Expected to Rise Following U.S. Stock Market Rebound Amid Semiconductor Buybacks

 
The U.S. stock market rebounded overnight, buoyed by falling government bond rates and international oil prices, as well as a recovery in semiconductor stocks. This trend is expected to carry over to the domestic market on the 26th. Attention is focused on whether the KOSPI, which recovered after a sharp drop at the start of the previous trading session, can maintain its upward momentum.
 
In pre-market trading at 8:20 a.m., Samsung Electronics rose by 3,000 won (1.17%) to 260,000 won, while SK Hynix increased by 21,000 won (1.25%) to 1,699,000 won. SK Square also saw a 0.94% rise, and Hyundai Motor gained 1.90%. Conversely, Samsung Electro-Mechanics fell by 0.59%.
 
In the U.S. market, semiconductor stocks also experienced a rebound. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 160.24 points (0.30%) at 53,577.40, while the S&P 500 rose by 24.42 points (0.32%) to 7,677.28, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 171.11 points (0.66%) to 26,151.30. The Dow has now risen for three consecutive trading days. Nvidia ended the day up 2.19% at $213.05, breaking a seven-day losing streak, and AMD surged over 4% following an upgrade from a brokerage. Micron also saw gains, contributing to a more than 1% increase in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.
 
Stabilizing market interest rates are also seen as a positive factor for the domestic stock market. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell by 8.1 basis points to 4.623%, while the 30-year yield dropped by 7.1 basis points to 5.160%. The decline in oil prices and easing concerns over military conflict between the U.S. and Iran contributed to the drop in rates, despite the consumer confidence index for August falling short of market expectations.
 
Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, stated, "With the decline in U.S. 10-year and 30-year bond yields and the strength of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, we expect the domestic market to show an upward trend."
 
Looking ahead, the key variable that will determine market direction is U.S. inflation. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for July, set to be released on the 26th, along with the Jackson Hole meeting scheduled for the 28th, are anticipated to be major events influencing interest rates. If inflation shows signs of easing in the PCE data, the potential for a resurgence in long-term rates may be limited, creating a favorable environment for growth stocks such as AI and semiconductors.
 
Lee Kyung-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, noted, "High interest rates are being incorporated as a manageable scenario rather than a new unexpected risk," adding that maintaining the existing leading stocks at market capitalization levels while gradually buying into sectors like distribution, securities, power equipment, and biotechnology during further adjustments could be a viable strategy.