Apartment prices in southern and southwestern Gyeonggi Province continue to show strength. Despite a general decline in population movement and buyer sentiment, there is a noticeable trend of selective migration toward areas with good access to Seoul, proximity to workplaces, quality school districts, and new apartments.
According to KB Kookmin Bank's real estate data, the average apartment sale price in Gyeonggi rose by 0.25% in the fourth week of August, significantly outpacing the national average increase of 0.11%.
In Gyeonggi, Suwon's Yeongtong District recorded the highest increase at 0.92%, followed by Gwangmyeong at 0.90% and Seongnam's Jungwon District at 0.76%. Dongtan in Hwaseong saw a 0.53% rise, while Suji in Yongin increased by 0.42%. Most of the areas with rising prices are concentrated in southern and southwestern Gyeonggi, which can absorb commuting demand from Seoul.
While the overall scale of population movement has decreased, demand for housing in southern Gyeonggi remains strong, contributing to rising home prices.
Data from the National Data Agency shows that 468,000 people moved within the country in July, a 15.5% decrease compared to the same month last year. The population mobility rate, which indicates the number of movers per 100 people, also fell to 10.8%, down 2.0 percentage points from a year earlier.
In the same month, Seoul experienced a net outflow of 6,108 people, while Gyeonggi saw a net inflow of 5,106, marking the largest net inflow among the 17 cities and provinces nationwide. In April, Seoul recorded a net outflow of 6,341, while Gyeonggi had a net inflow of 3,797. This pattern of population leaving Seoul and moving to Gyeonggi has been consistent.
Over the past 20 years, statistics from the National Data Agency indicate that the metropolitan area first recorded a net outflow in 2011, but returned to a net inflow in 2017, continuing that trend.
By age group, individuals aged 19 to 34 have consistently moved into the metropolitan area over the past two decades, while those aged 40 to 64 have been leaving since 2007.
Households maintaining jobs in Seoul are increasingly opting for larger or newer apartments in Gyeonggi. Yeongtong in Suwon and Dongtan in Hwaseong offer good access to industrial complexes, including Samsung Electronics, while Suji in Yongin provides convenient access to Gangnam in Seoul. Gwangmyeong is adjacent to Seoul's southwestern area, and Jungwon in Seongnam is seen as more affordable compared to Bundang and Pangyo, attracting real demand.
The demand for housing linked to population movement is evident not only in the sales market but also in the rental market. According to KB Kookmin Bank, the average rent price for apartments in Gyeonggi rose by 0.20% in the fourth week of August, an increase from the previous week's 0.14%.
In Hanam, rent prices surged by 0.56%, the highest increase in Gyeonggi. Suwon's Jangan District saw a 0.53% rise, followed by Suji in Yongin at 0.49%, Gwacheon at 0.48%, Dongtan in Hwaseong at 0.45%, and Gwangmyeong at 0.43%. The areas experiencing rising sale prices also overlap with those seeing strong rental price increases in southern Gyeonggi and areas adjacent to Seoul.
In Suwon, the sale price in Yeongtong rose by 0.92%, while rent prices in Jangan and Gwonseon Districts increased by 0.53% and 0.43%, respectively. The overall housing demand in the city is being divided between the sales and rental markets. Suji in Yongin also saw simultaneous increases in both sales (0.42%) and rent (0.49%). Dongtan in Hwaseong experienced a 0.53% rise in sales and a 0.45% rise in rent.
However, despite rising prices, buyer sentiment is weakening. The national buyer sentiment index fell by 1.7 points to 46.4 compared to the previous week. Gyeonggi's index dropped by 1.2 points to 58.9, while Incheon fell to 31.1, also down 1.2 points. Although prices are rising in Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Incheon, the number of buyers has not increased.
Analysts suggest that transactions are occurring in areas with competitive pricing or development and transportation benefits, which is driving the index up. In fact, the overall sale price increase for apartments in Gyeonggi was 0.25%, with Yeongtong in Suwon and Gwangmyeong seeing increases of over 0.9%, while some outer areas recorded stable or declining prices.
A representative from a real estate agency in Gwangmyeong stated, "If the current trend of rising rent prices and decreasing supply continues, some rental demand may quickly shift to sales. However, if loan regulations, tax burdens, and economic slowdown increase, the wait-and-see attitude among buyers in nearby areas may persist."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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