The Bank of Korea is hosting an international conference to reassess the impact of an aging population and low birth rates on the economy and to explore new policy responses. Research is expected to show that low birth rates do not necessarily constrain economic growth, and the scarcity of young labor may actually promote the development of labor-saving technologies such as automation.
The conference, titled 'The Economics of Population Aging and Longevity: From Challenges to Opportunities,' is being co-hosted with the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) from September 2 to 3 in Seoul.
Following opening remarks by Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-sung and OECD Economic Policy Research Director Asa Johansson, the first session will feature a keynote speech by Fumio Hayashi, an honorary professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) in Japan, on the 'Fundamental Causes of Japan's 30-Year Economic Stagnation.'
Notably, the conference will present an analysis suggesting that competition for status through private education may be a significant factor contributing to declining birth rates. It is estimated that if there had been no competition for status through private education, the average number of children born to women born between 1970 and 1975 would have been 2.45, 28% higher than the current estimate of 1.92.
Research will also be presented indicating that low birth rates do not necessarily lead to decreased economic growth. An analysis of data from various countries over the past 70 years shows that countries with a more significant decline in birth rates tend to have higher per capita growth rates among the working-age population. This is attributed to the promotion of labor-saving technologies due to the scarcity of young labor.
Studies analyzing the impact of population aging on macroeconomics and monetary policy will also be discussed. These analyses suggest that aging may lower economic growth rates and real interest rates, thereby constraining the operational capacity of monetary policy.
Research addressing the vicious cycle of population concentration in the metropolitan area and related demographic issues will be presented. It suggests that the concentration of population and jobs in the metropolitan area may reinforce regional decline and low birth rates.
Discussions will also focus on whether artificial intelligence (AI) can alleviate labor market imbalances resulting from demographic changes. Research indicates that the exposure to AI is concentrated among younger individuals, suggesting that the spread of AI alone may not resolve labor market imbalances caused by aging and population decline.
Finally, a high-level policy panel discussion will address 'Bold Policy Innovations for Prosperity in an Era of Aging and Population Decline' to explore policy responses.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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