The dementia prevalence rate among people aged 65 and older is expected to reach 10.34 percent in 2040, according to projections by the Ministry of Health and Welfare based on national population forecasts and a nationwide epidemiological survey on dementia.
The rate fell slightly from 9.17 percent in 2020 to 9.09 percent last year, but is expected to rise again over the coming years.
By 2050, the prevalence rate is projected to climb to 11.81 percent, with about 2.23 million dementia patients among an elderly population of 18.91 million.
Medical spending on dementia has also been rising.
According to the Health Insurance Research Institute under the National Health Insurance Service, medical expenses for dementia patients aged 40 and older surpassed 1 trillion won ($741 million) for the first time in 2012 and rose above 2 trillion won in 2016 and 3 trillion won in 2020.
The figure reached 3.34 trillion won in 2023, up 141.4 percent from a decade earlier.
The increase was particularly pronounced among elderly women.
In 2023, men aged 80 and older accounted for 52 percent of total dementia-related medical spending among male patients. For women, those aged 80 and older accounted for 82 percent of the total.
Women in their 80s alone accounted for 1.3 trillion won in medical expenses, while those aged 90 and older accounted for 683.9 billion won.
Dementia-related medical costs are expected to continue rising as South Korea’s population ages.
Depending on the projection model, total medical expenses are forecast to reach between about 3.7 trillion won and 4.4 trillion won by 2030.
“The number of people with dementia is expected to continue increasing and reach 1.3 to 1.5 times the 2023 level by 2030,” the researchers said.
People aged 80 and older are expected to account for more than half of all dementia patients, while women are projected to make up about 65 percent of the total, they added.
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