The United States and Iran escalated their retaliatory attacks on September 5, targeting each other's oil tankers and vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and in adjacent waters. Analysts suggest that the U.S. is specifically aiming at Iran's oil export network, intensifying economic pressure on the country.
According to Reuters, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran announced it attacked three oil tankers passing through an 'unauthorized route' in the Strait of Hormuz, along with three U.S.-related vessels in other waters. This response followed an earlier incident where Iran launched ballistic missiles at two U.S. Navy ships, prompting the U.S. to strike three Iranian oil tankers.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that American forces successfully evaded the Iranian attacks and rendered Iranian oil tankers near Harg Island and other vessels inoperable. In a statement, CENTCOM Commander Brad Cooper warned, "If you attack our two ships, you will face a much greater economic cost. We will eliminate your three vessels." In response, the IRGC cautioned against suspicious movements through unauthorized waterways, threatening to attack vessels.
Tensions are particularly high as U.S. attacks occur near Harg Island, a critical hub for Iran's oil exports. Further assaults on Harg Island could impose additional pressure on Iran's already struggling oil industry and economy, which has been hit hard by U.S. sanctions. Iranian authorities have warned of a strong response if Harg Island is attacked.
As the blockade surrounding the Strait of Hormuz drags on, analysts predict that Iran's economic burdens will increase. The Wall Street Journal reported on September 4 that both Iran and the U.S. are attempting to outlast each other in the blockade, but recent trends appear to be unfavorable for Iran.
Since July, Iran has been unable to export oil from the Persian Gulf due to U.S. sanctions, while the U.S. has been supporting Gulf Arab nations in transporting significant amounts of oil through the Strait of Hormuz despite Iranian attacks.
According to maritime data firm TankerTrackers.com, approximately 5 million barrels of oil have exited the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz daily over the past 28 days, with almost no Iranian oil included. About 2.5 million barrels are also being exported daily through oil ports in Oman, such as Fujairah in the UAE. Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers.com, noted to the WSJ, "Iran's blockade has more holes than the U.S. blockade."
While oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz has not been completely halted, the U.S. blockade has specifically targeted Iranian oil exports, causing a relatively greater impact on Iran's economy. The WSJ also pointed out that while the U.S. faces political and economic burdens due to the conflict, "time is not solely on Iran's side."
As economic pressures on Iran mount, there are concerns that the country may either seek negotiations or escalate military actions to enhance its bargaining power.
Vali Nasr, a professor of Middle Eastern studies at Johns Hopkins University, told the WSJ, "One option is to capitulate, and the other is to escalate significantly to fight their way out of a corner. The latter may be the more likely choice." He explained that increasing military pressure could lead Iran to return to the negotiating table while minimizing concessions.
* This article has been translated by AI.
Copyright ⓒ Aju Press All rights reserved.