Changes in Ruling Party Dynamics Amid Declining Approval Ratings

Since Kim Min-seok took office as the leader of the Democratic Party, the relationship between the party and the Blue House has begun to shift. The ruling party, which previously focused on supporting government policies, is now voicing its own opinions on issues directly affecting public sentiment, such as budget, real estate taxation, and personnel matters. The party's approach to ministerial confirmation hearings has also changed, with varying levels of support depending on the candidate.

In the context of declining presidential approval ratings, analysts suggest that these changes reflect a strengthening of the ruling party's role in conveying public sentiment rather than a rift between the party and the Blue House. If the party can effectively reflect public opinion in policy and personnel decisions, it could serve as a stabilizing mechanism for governance. However, there are concerns that if disagreements escalate into blame games, it could undermine governance.

According to political sources on the 6th, the party and the Blue House have shown some differences in their approaches to real estate taxation, the second cabinet reshuffle, and legislation supporting mega-special zones. During the first high-level party-government meeting on August 23, Kim emphasized the need for a "different role for the party" and "healthy tension." This suggests that the ruling party aims to go beyond merely endorsing Blue House policies to actively convey public sentiment and adjust policies.

This shift is particularly evident in the party's response to the confirmation hearings for the second cabinet. The Democratic Party is actively defending Kim Seung-won, the nominee for Minister of Justice, emphasizing the need for judicial reform and responding vigorously to opposition attacks. This reflects a recognition that the appointment of the Minister of Justice is directly linked to the future of judicial reform, necessitating the maintenance of momentum for key governance tasks.

In contrast, there are concerns within the party regarding Yong Hye-in, the nominee for Minister of Gender Equality and Family, with calls for her resignation emerging. The leadership has adopted a cautious stance rather than a proactive defense, likely aware that controversies surrounding concurrent positions could add pressure among the 2030 generation and moderate voters, who are sensitive to fairness issues.

The differing responses to the two nominees illustrate that the Democratic Party is considering both governance tasks and public sentiment rather than adopting a uniform stance on all personnel matters. While the party and the Blue House may form a united front on core governance tasks like judicial reform, the party is also tasked with conveying public sentiment and demanding adjustments on issues that could alienate moderate and younger voters.

Previously, there were indications that the Blue House accepted the ruling party's views during discussions on revising the taxation plan for "non-resident homeowners" and the resignation of Kim Yong-beom, the head of the Blue House Policy Office. This suggests a trend where the Democratic Party communicates the need for policy adjustments and personnel changes based on public sentiment, which the Blue House then incorporates into governance.

The upcoming confirmation hearings, set to intensify in mid-September, are expected to be the first test of the evolving relationship between the party and the Blue House. The key question is whether the structure, where the Blue House exercises presidential appointment powers while the ruling party conveys public sentiment and provides political support, can function effectively.

How the party addresses the controversies surrounding Yong and responds to Kim's confirmation hearing will likely influence the future direction of the party-Blue House relationship. If the ruling party's communication of public sentiment and the Blue House's governance decisions can be effectively integrated, it could establish a division of responsibilities that mitigates risks in policy and personnel matters. Conversely, if both sides appear to be avoiding political burdens during a period of declining approval ratings, it could lead to increased conflict between the party and the Blue House.

The regular National Assembly session will also see major governance tasks awaiting action, including a budget proposal exceeding 820 trillion won, tax reform bills, legislation related to mega-projects, and follow-up legislation for judicial reform. Many of these issues require not only the policy drive of the Blue House and government but also legislative support from the Democratic Party, which holds a majority in the National Assembly.

Ultimately, the key lies not in the existence of differences between the party and the Blue House but in how these differences are managed. If the party's concerns can function as a mechanism for reflecting public sentiment in governance and the Blue House appropriately accommodates these concerns, it could enhance the stability of governance during a period of declining approval ratings. Conversely, if disagreements lead to public confrontations or blame games, it could place additional burdens on governance.

Eom Kyung-young, head of the Era Spirit Research Institute, stated, "The nominations of Yong Hye-in for the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family and Lee So-young for the Ministry of SMEs and Startups seem to aim to prevent the conservative shift among young women by promoting young female leaders. However, there is a risk of overlooking the fact that the 2030 generation places a high value on fairness and justice, and mishandling the upcoming confirmation hearings could jeopardize the approval rating threshold of 30%."

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