The South Korean government is considering a deployment to the Hormuz Strait as President Lee Jae-myung's pragmatic diplomacy faces scrutiny amid U.S. pressure and Iranian threats. Lee's approval ratings have been declining due to recent controversies, including the cancellation of charges against him and cabinet appointments, raising concerns that sending combat troops could further harm his popularity.
A foreign ministry official stated on September 6 that in response to Iran's backlash over the deployment discussions, "the government is closely communicating with the international community, including relevant countries, to restore peace and stability in the Middle East and ensure the free navigation of all vessels, including ours, in the Hormuz Strait." This statement appears to distance the government from Iran's framing of the situation as a war involvement.
Previously, a senior Iranian political and security official warned in an interview with the Lebanese Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Mayadeen on September 4 that any South Korean intervention opposing Iran in the Hormuz Strait would be considered direct military participation in aggression and war against Iran.
While the Iranian response is strong, the Lee administration must also consider its relationship with the United States, which is based on the South Korea-U.S. alliance. The U.S. has consistently argued that South Korea, as a major importer of Middle Eastern oil, should support the protection of navigation freedom in the Hormuz Strait.
Ultimately, the decision is likely to be made within the framework of pragmatic diplomacy, which aims to balance values and interests. The administration prioritizes national interests, suggesting that the deployment decision will be weighed against its practical benefits.
Additionally, President Lee's declining approval ratings will likely be a significant factor in the decision-making process. A recent survey conducted by Realmeter, commissioned by Energy Economy News, found that from August 31 to September 4, only 37.4% of respondents approved of Lee's handling of state affairs, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous week.
The survey was conducted using a wireless automated response method, with a margin of error of ±2.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level and a response rate of 4.2%. More details can be found on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.
Moreover, some voices of opposition from the ruling Democratic Party and other allied factions regarding the deployment could pose additional challenges for President Lee.
In this context, political analyst Park Sang-byeong remarked in a conversation with Aju Economy that "the rumors about the deployment seem to have emerged too hastily," adding that sending combat troops would not align with the pragmatic diplomacy that President Lee seeks. He cautioned that this issue could lead to a potential lame-duck situation for the president.
Choi Jin, head of the Presidential Leadership Research Institute, also noted that President Lee's support has eroded among moderate voters, who tend to waver during times of political or economic instability. He assessed that the likelihood of the Hormuz deployment being a positive development is slim.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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