The fluctuating exchange rate of the Korean won against the U.S. dollar and the volatility of U.S. Treasury yields are complicating strategic planning for major corporations. The rapid changes in macroeconomic indicators have made it increasingly difficult for companies to establish quarterly plans.
On September 7, the exchange rate for the won against the dollar closed at 1,340.5 won (as of 3:30 PM) in the Seoul foreign exchange market, marking a decline of approximately 14% from its peak in June.
Exchange rate fluctuations are considered a direct factor affecting corporate performance. Samsung Electronics reported that the strong dollar positively impacted its operating profit by about 3.1 trillion won in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter. Hyundai Motor also noted that the exchange rate effect contributed an additional 2.571 trillion won in sales and 238 billion won in operating profit during the same period. Conversely, if the won strengthens rapidly, the benefits previously enjoyed from the exchange rate could diminish significantly.
Industry insiders suggest that the speed of exchange rate changes poses a greater burden than its absolute level. One industry official stated, "Even after establishing quarterly plans, we find ourselves needing to revise our assumptions about the exchange rate just weeks later. The increasing uncertainty makes it difficult to finalize investment timing." While a stable exchange rate, whether high or low, can be incorporated into business plans, a reversal in direction over a few months necessitates recalculating sales prices, costs, and investment resources. Companies with significant overseas sales and investments, such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor, and LG Electronics, are reportedly in a position where they must reassess their scenarios regarding exchange rates and interest rates.
In contrast, U.S. Treasury yields are on the rise. The yield on 10-year bonds reached 4.817% during trading on September 2, the highest level since November 2023, and was at 4.78% on September 4. Analysts attribute this increase to the widening U.S. fiscal deficit, inflationary pressures, and the potential for further interest rate hikes.
The burden of rising interest rates is also identified as a factor disrupting corporate plans. U.S. Treasury yields serve as a benchmark for global corporate bonds and loan rates. Companies like Samsung, SK, Hyundai, and LG, which are making substantial investments in overseas factories and AI data centers, face increased costs for bond issuance and borrowing as long-term rates rise. As the benchmark for investment returns also increases, there is speculation that they may need to reevaluate the timing and scale of their projects.
A survey conducted by the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry found that 55.6% of 2,470 manufacturing companies have revised their management plans for the second half of the year following changes in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Among these, 59.3% adjusted their sales prices and delivery costs, while 56.4% modified their procurement methods for raw materials. Additionally, 19.7% reported changes to the scale or timing of new investments.
Lee Min-hyuk, a researcher at KB Kookmin Bank, stated, "If the rise in U.S. long-term interest rates increases the capital costs for hyperscalers, it could dampen AI investments and the semiconductor industry, potentially leading to downward pressure on the won through the Korean economy and stock market." This indicates that fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields and exchange rates could simultaneously impact the performance of export companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, as well as the demand for AI investments.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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