As global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) investment grows, the semiconductor industry is experiencing a boom. However, forecasts suggest that the pace of AI investment expansion may gradually slow down. Concerns over AI profitability could lead to a quicker decline in investment demand than anticipated.
On September 10, the Bank of Korea projected in its 'Monetary Credit Policy Report' that the demand for AI investment will continue to rise for a considerable period, driven by competition for leadership among companies and nations.
Currently, global AI investment is on a steep upward trajectory, fueled by increased utilization of AI, a surge in computing demand, and competition among businesses and countries.
As the demand for training high-performance models persists, the need for inference is also rapidly increasing due to the growing use of AI and advancements in model sophistication.
Major U.S. tech companies are quickly ramping up investments, anticipating that securing customers early will form the basis for long-term revenue. Meanwhile, China and the European Union are actively supporting AI investments from economic and security perspectives.
While leading forecasting institutions expect the trend of increasing global AI investment to continue for some time, they estimate that the rate of growth will gradually slow after peaking this year, given the already high levels of investment.
Looking at projections for AI investment growth in 2026, Bloomberg Intelligence estimates a 95% increase, followed by Bank of America at 79%, and S&P Global and Gartner at 64% and 61%, respectively.
After 2027, the pace of investment is expected to stabilize. Projections for global AI investment growth in 2027 range from 38% to 40% (with S&P Global at 40%, Gartner and Bloomberg Intelligence at 39%, and Bank of America at 38%). By 2028, growth is anticipated to slow further to between 13% and 21% (with S&P Global at 21%, Gartner at 19%, Bank of America at 16%, and Bloomberg Intelligence at 13%).
The Bank of Korea noted that as the verification of AI investment profitability strengthens and demands for investment efficiency increase, this could become a limiting factor for companies looking to expand their investments.
Additionally, the growing reliance of big tech companies on external funding, as it becomes increasingly difficult to cover investment costs with internal resources, could lead to higher financing costs and accumulated vulnerabilities. This may make future investment flows more sensitive to changes in financial conditions.
Consequently, the Bank of Korea stated, 'With the increased reliance on external funding for AI investments and ongoing concerns about profitability, there is a possibility that the slowdown could occur more quickly than expected if financial conditions worsen and uncertainties about actual profit generation increase.'
It added, 'Global AI investment is a key driver of the domestic semiconductor industry's robust performance, but it is also one of the main sources of uncertainty. Therefore, it is crucial to continuously monitor the development of the AI industry and the associated risks.'
* This article has been translated by AI.
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