SEOUL, September 10 (AJP) - Nineteen years ago, Apple's iPhone rewrote the rules of the mobile phone industry, forcing Samsung Electronics and other handset makers into a frantic race to catch up.
Round two is unfolding with the roles reversed.
Apple has unveiled the iPhone Duo, its first foldable smartphone, entering a form factor Samsung helped bring into the mainstream with the original Galaxy Fold in 2019. This time, Samsung is the incumbent and Apple the latecomer.
The reversal sets up a new chapter in one of the technology industry's longest-running rivalries, with Apple challenging Samsung not in the conventional smartphone format it created but in a category the Korean company has spent years refining.
At first glance, the resemblance is striking.
The book-style iPhone Duo opens to a 7.6-inch inner display and has a 5.4-inch outer screen. Apple's device starts at $1,999.
Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold8, unveiled in July and released in the United States in August, also has a 7.6-inch main display and a roughly 5.5-inch cover screen. It weighs 201 grams and starts at $1,899.99 in the United States.
But Apple is unlikely to remain a minor newcomer for long.
Counterpoint Research expects Apple to capture about 25 percent of global foldable smartphone shipments in 2026 despite entering the market late in the year, placing it second behind Samsung at 38 percent and ahead of Huawei at 22 percent.
The projected jump is particularly notable because initial supply of the iPhone Duo is expected to be constrained, with Apple gradually increasing availability as production ramps up.
For Samsung, the more immediate threat may be North America, one of its most important premium smartphone markets and Apple's home turf.
Counterpoint earlier forecast Apple's share of North American foldables could reach 46 percent this year, while Samsung's share could fall to 29 percent from 51 percent in 2025. The region's overall foldable market is projected to expand 48 percent.
Those numbers illustrate Apple's biggest weapon.
Samsung has spent years improving foldable hinges, flexible OLED panels, durability and software built around larger screens. Apple, however, enters the category with an enormous installed base of premium iPhone users who previously had to leave the Apple ecosystem if they wanted a foldable phone.
Counterpoint expects that ecosystem advantage to help Apple unlock pent-up demand among high-end iPhone users and take share from premium Android foldable makers.
Samsung is hardly entering the battle from a position of weakness.
Its global smartphone sales rose 9 percent from a year earlier during the week of Aug. 9-15, even as the overall smartphone market contracted 10 percent, helped by strong early demand for the Galaxy Z8 series.
Sales of the Galaxy Z8 series during its first two weeks were 8 percent higher than those of the previous-generation Z7 lineup during the comparable launch period, according to Counterpoint.
Samsung also has something Apple does not: seven years of commercial experience in a product category where early failures can be costly.
The first Galaxy Fold encountered durability problems, but successive generations allowed Samsung to refine flexible displays, hinges, water resistance, multitasking and software interfaces long before Apple put a folding iPhone on sale.
The question is whether that head start can outweigh Apple's ability to rapidly bring millions of existing iPhone users into the category.
There is another possibility. Apple's arrival could make the market much bigger.
Foldables remain a relatively small part of global smartphone sales despite years of development. Counterpoint expects cumulative foldable shipments to pass 100 million units by the end of this year, eight generations after the category emerged in 2019.
Growth is expected to accelerate sharply next year.
Counterpoint forecasts global foldable smartphone shipments will rise 37 percent in 2027, the fastest growth since 2022, helped by Apple's expansion, Samsung's latest Galaxy Z Fold devices and new models from other manufacturers.
That makes Apple's entry a double-edged development for Samsung.
The iPhone maker could strip Samsung of customers at the premium end, particularly in markets where consumers are already deeply tied to Apple's ecosystem.
But Apple could also do what Samsung has so far struggled to accomplish on its own: turn folding phones from a specialist category into a mainstream premium device.
Samsung could benefit from that expansion even when consumers buy an iPhone.
Samsung Display, an affiliate of Samsung Electronics, is one of the world's leading makers of foldable OLED panels and stands to gain as Apple drives demand for premium folding displays.
Counterpoint expects global foldable smartphone panel shipments to reach about 27.5 million units this year, up around 24 percent from 2025, while revenue is projected to surge about 48 percent to $4.4 billion. Apple's procurement ramp is one of the main drivers.
Earlier Counterpoint research identified Samsung Display as a major beneficiary of Apple's entry and projected its share of foldable panel shipments would rise above 50 percent.
The result is an unusual competitive dynamic.
Apple is becoming Samsung Electronics' most formidable new competitor in finished foldable phones while simultaneously helping enlarge a display market in which another Samsung company is positioned to benefit.
The next phase of competition is also moving beyond hinges and thinness.
Counterpoint expects wider book-style foldables to become increasingly important as larger screens make AI-assisted multitasking easier, allowing users to keep source material, AI output and other applications visible simultaneously. Ecosystem integration and software experience are therefore expected to play a larger role in differentiating foldables.
That brings the rivalry back onto terrain Apple knows well.
Samsung had the first-mover advantage in folding hardware. Apple brings an integrated software and services ecosystem and a large base of premium users.
In the first smartphone round, Apple changed the format and Samsung proved it could catch up fast.
In round two, Samsung created the head start.
Now it is Apple's turn to chase.
AJP Takeaways
- Apple presents a two-sided impact for Samsung: tougher competition for Samsung Electronics, but potentially stronger demand for the foldable display ecosystem in which Samsung Display is a major player.
- Apple is forecast to capture 25 percent of the global foldable market in its first year, while Samsung remains No. 1 with 38 percent, according to Counterpoint Research's latest forecast.
- Foldables still account for only about 2 percent of global smartphone sales, but shipments are projected to accelerate 37 percent in 2027 following Apple's entry.
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