Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, is caught in a dilemma regarding its security and oil exports. As Iranian and Iranian-aligned forces intensify their attacks, the kingdom finds it increasingly difficult to engage in full-scale military operations or negotiations. Furthermore, uncertainty surrounding military support from the Trump administration has narrowed Saudi Arabia's options, according to an AP report.
Key oil transport route targeted, suspected Iranian-backed attack
Recently, Saudi Arabia's oil transport network has faced multiple disruptions both on land and at sea. Reports indicate that on September 12, a drone attack targeted the Riyadh-Medina region, halting operations on the east-west pipeline that transports oil from the eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
This approximately 1,200-kilometer pipeline is a crucial alternative route for transporting Saudi oil to the Red Sea without passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia has been using this route to divert about 5 million barrels of oil daily in anticipation of a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 4-5% of global oil supply.
While the drone used in the attack is believed to have been launched from Iraq, the exact perpetrators remain unclear. AP has suggested that Iranian-backed militias operating in Iraq, possibly supported by Yemen's Houthi rebels, may have led the attack. However, the Saudi Foreign Ministry stated it would refrain from retaliatory strikes at the request of the Iraqi government.
Houthis expand control over Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, increasing pressure
Saudi Arabia's maritime transport routes are also under threat as the Iranian-aligned Houthi rebels rapidly expand their influence along the Red Sea coast. According to AP and AFP reports on September 11, the Houthis have taken control of the key port city of Mocha and, within a day, captured the strategic island of Perim in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.
The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is a vital maritime gateway at the entrance to the Red Sea. As the Houthis strengthen their grip in this area, Saudi Arabia's ability to export oil through the Red Sea is increasingly jeopardized. The alternative transport routes established to bypass the Strait of Hormuz are now being threatened on both land and sea.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported on September 11 that Saudi oil supply has fallen to its lowest level in over 30 years, partly due to attacks on vessels passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait by groups linked to the Houthis.
Challenges of war and negotiation, U.S. military support uncertain
The challenge for Saudi Arabia is that expanding its military response to the Houthis into a full-scale war is not straightforward. If Saudi Arabia escalates its offensive, it risks a prolonged conflict and increased retaliatory attacks on its energy infrastructure by the Houthis.
Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has led a coalition of Arab forces in the Yemeni civil war against the Houthi rebels but has achieved limited success on the ground. The conflict has resulted in approximately 150,000 deaths and left Yemen facing a famine crisis. Since a ceasefire in 2022, Saudi Arabia has focused on economic reforms and regional stability.
Middle East expert Neil Quilliam told AP, "The pressure on Saudi Arabia to respond to the recent Houthi advances has increased, but every option carries significant costs and uncertain outcomes."
Finding a diplomatic solution is also challenging. The Houthis are demanding that Saudi Arabia halt airstrikes and lift the blockade on Yemen as conditions for negotiations. Accepting these terms could enhance the Houthis' long-term influence, posing a dilemma for Saudi Arabia.
U.S. support is also uncertain. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have relied on American security guarantees for decades, but assessments indicate that the willingness of the Trump administration to intervene has diminished compared to the past.
According to Axios, Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, called President Trump twice on September 10 to request attacks on the Houthis, but Trump declined. Instead, the U.S. agreed to provide Saudi Arabia with intelligence on potential targets against the Houthis.
AP analysis suggests that the U.S. is currently focused on deploying large military forces around the Strait of Hormuz to pressure Iran and prevent attacks on vessels, limiting its capacity for another military operation in Yemen. Additionally, growing negative public sentiment regarding war in the U.S. ahead of the November midterm elections adds to the challenges.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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